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ID:47308711
大小:423.79 KB
页数:20页
时间:2020-01-06
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1、Antipodeanfixedincomemarkets2020outlookQEinAustraliaandbankcapitalreformsinNZwillbethedefiningthemesforAntipodeanratemarketsintheyearahead·GrowthintheAustralianeconomyisexpectedtoacceleratein2020,animprovementfromabelow-trend1.8%forecastfor2019.However,ourforecastenvisages
2、thattheRBAwillstillfallshortofemploymentandtarget-consistentinflationobjectives.WethusforecastmoreeasingfromtheRBAin2020,comprising50bpofratecuts,forwardguidanceandaQEprogramofAUD35-50bnofACGBpurchases.Thispolicyoutlook–Australia’sfirstforayintounconventionalmonetarypolicy
3、–framesourviewsforAUDfixedincomemarketsintheyearahead.Themaindomesticrisktothisviewwouldbemeaningfulfiscalstimulus.·Inthefrontend,weremainreceivedAUD3Mx3MOISandrecommendreceivingOct-20RBAOISvs.Apr-20OIS.WefavourbuyingACGBsondips;wetarget0.85%and1.10%asattractiveentrylevels
4、forfreshdurationlongsinthe3Yand10Ytenors,respectively.TheACGB3s/10scurveshouldflattentowards+25bpbyyear-end,with3Yyieldstofinishtheyearat0.45%.·WerecommendowningACGB10Ybondsvs.UST10Ynotes;thisspreadshouldtracktowards-105bpby3Q20.Wewouldlooktopositionforasteeper3s/10sswapsp
5、readcurveonanymoveto+9bpandweremainlongACGBApr-2027sonASW.Semi-governmentbondsshouldout-performinaQEenvironment;NSWTCpaperlooksattractiveinthe10Ytenor,whileQTCandWATCpaperofferattractivecarryrelativetoriskinthe7Ytenor.·Werecommendpositioningforaflatter(orinverted)AUD/USDFX
6、/OIScurve;thisshoulddriveinversionintheveryfrontendoftheAUD/USDcrosscurrencybasisswapcurve,too(forexample,1Yx3Mvs.3M).Invol,wecontinuetorecommendselling1x21Yx2YreceiverspreadsontheviewthattheRBAwillnottakeratesintonegativeterritory.Ininflation,werecommendowningACGBiFeb-202
7、2breakevensandholdingacrossmarketlonginACGBi2030breakevensvs.TIPS2029breakevens.·NewZealandGDPgrowthslowedin2019andtheRBNZeasedpolicyby75bpthisyear.Whileweexpectamodestimprovementineconomicgrowthnextyear,itwilllikelyfallshortofthelevelconsistentwithastableunemploymentrate.
8、Inaddition,theRBNZwillannouncethefinalversionofitsproposedreformstobankcapitalrequirement
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