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1、PaperpresentedatthePTRCInternationalTransportConference,Manchester,England,1993.AIRPORTAREAECONOMICDEVELOPMENTMODEL空港区域经济发展模型GlenE.Weisbrod,EconomicDevelopmentResearchGroup,Boston,MAJohnS.ReedandRoanneM.Neuwirth,CambridgeSystematics,Inc.I.INTRODUCTONANDOVERVIEW1、概述Asbusinessma
2、rketsbecomenationalandinternationalinscale,airportsareincreasinglybeingviewedascatalystsforlocaleconomicdevelopment.Theirabilitytogeneratejobsandattractnewbusinessisbeingusedinmanylocationsasajustificationforpublicinvestmentsinnewairportconstructionandexpansion.Anticipationofn
3、ewbusinessactivityalsocallsforappropriatelandplanning.Yetfewtypesofeconomicdevelopmenthavebeenaspoorlypredictedasdevelopmentaroundairports.Atsomeairports,largetractsofsurroundinglandreservedfordevelopmenthaveremainedvacantfordecades.Unforeseenrapiddevelopmentaroundotherairport
4、shassaturatedtheareaandchokedarearoadswithtraffic.Insomecases,theareaaroundanewairporthashadbothsituationsoccuroveraperiodof25years.随着商务市场的全球化与国际化，机场逐渐被认为是区域经济发展的催化剂。机场能够增加工作岗位并吸引新的企业入驻成为很多地区投资新机场建设或机场扩建的理由。新业务活力的预期也会需要新增的土地规划。然而，少数情况下，基础周边的经济发展并不如预期那样好。在一些机场周边，大块的预留发展用地显得空旷甚至
5、颓败。而其他一些机场周边却迎来了意料之外的发展，不但完整的开发了土地，甚至带来了交通的拥堵；甚至一些情况下，一个空港区的发展在25年中经历了这两种情形。Thispaperisintendedtohelpexplainthesesituationsbyprovidingaframeworkforunderstandingeconomicimpactsandplanningfordevelopmentaroundneworexpandedairports.ItisbasedonstudiesbyCambridgeSystematicsofairport
6、sinEurope,JapanandNorthAmerica.Basedontheexperienceinthevicinityoftheseairports,wehaveconstructedamodelsystemforforecastingeconomicimpactandplanningforairportarealanddevelopment.Themodeldividesimpactsintermsof(以…的观点，以…的方式)airportfacilityemployment,directlyrelatedbusinessactivi
7、ty,businessesattractedtothesurroundingareaandspinoffdevelopment.Thispaperdescribesthebasicframeworkforidentifyingthenatureofeconomicactivitiesoccurringineachoftheseareas,thevariablefactorsaffectingtheirmagnitude,andapplicationsofthemodelsystemforairportrelatedplanning.Commerci
8、alairportsareemphasizedhere,butgeneralaviationairportsarealso
