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1、Long-RunGrowthForecastingStefanBergheimLong-RunGrowthForecastingStefanBergheimRaimundstr.12160320FrankfurtGermanystefan.bergheim@googlemail.comISBN978-3-540-77679-6e-ISBN978-3-540-77680-2LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2008923365©2008Springer-VerlagBerlinHeidelbergTh
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5、54321springer.comTomymotherAcknowledgementThisbookisbasedonmydissertationatWHUOttoBeisheimSchoolofMan-agement.IwouldliketothankMichaelFrenkelforsupervisingthisprojectandJ•urgenWeigandforbeingco-supervisor.SpecialthanksgotoMarcoNeuhausforthelongdiscussionsin2004and20
6、05thatinspiredlargepartsofthisstudy.ChiaraOsbatintroducedmetothenon-stationarypanelliterature,andMag-dalenaKorb,AndreaSchneider,ElgaBartschandSarahRupprechtweresokindtocommentondraftsofthebook.SeminarparticipantsatETHZurich,DeutscheBundesbank,theMaxPlanckInstituteof
7、Economics,theInstitutderdeutschenWirtschaftCologneandtheMacroeconomicPolicyInstitute(IMK)inD•usseldorfalsomadehelpfulsuggestions.Contents1Theimportanceoflong-rungrowthanalysis...............11.1Frequentforecastfailures.................................11.2Strongdeman
8、d-butlittlesupply.........................31.3Planofwork............................................61.3.1Choosingasensibletheoreticalmode
