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1、5002IEEETransactionsonPowerApparatusandSystems,Vol.PAS-100,No.12December1981AMETHODFORTHEFORECASTINGOFTHEPROBABILITYDENSITYFUNCTIONOFPOWERSYSTEMLOADSG.HeydtA.KhotanzadN.FarahbakhshianSeniorMemberStudentMembersPurdueElectricPowerCenterPurdueUniversityWestLafaye,tte,IN47907Abstrac
2、t-ConventionaLloadforecastinginvolvesRAutocorrelationfunctionofxxxthepredictionofthemeanvalueofthedemandofanTSamplinginterval.Valuesoftimeatelectricpowersystem.Themeanvalueofaquantitysamplingintervaldenotedt..whichissubjecttouncertaintydoesnotfullycharac-.-~~~~~~~~~~~Jterizethat
3、quantity.Inthispaper,twowellknownvar(-)VarianceloadforecastingmethodsaregeneralizedtopredictxRandomprocess,loadofanelectrictheentireprobabilitydensityfunctionoftheload.powersystemNotethattheproposedtechniqueisnottocalculateQEstimatedvalueoftheLoadtheprobabilitydensityoftheforeca
4、stedload,but,2rather,theprobabilitydensityfunctionoftheloadaxVarianceofx,m2forxitself.Fromthisdensityfunction,awidevarietyofMinimumvaluequantitiesmaybecalculated:themeanvalue;theprobabilitythattheloadwillexceedsomethreshold;INTRODUCTIONafigureofconfidenceoftheforecastmean;condi-
5、tionalprobabilities(underspeciaLconditionssuchasTheconceptofpowersystemloadforecastinghasnegativegenerationmargin),andconditionalexpecta-traditionallybeenstrqightforwardinitsobjectives:tions.Bothmethodspresentedrelyontheforecastingtoestimatex(t),thedemand,forfuturevaluesoft.ofth
6、estatisticalmomentsofthedemand,andusingThisestimate,x,iscalculatedusingpastobserva-thosemomentstocalculatetheprobabilitydensitytionsofxaswellaspastobservationsofrelatedfunctionusingtheGram-CharlierseriestypeA.parameters(includingweatherparameters,populationAnexampleusingtypicald
7、ataisgiven.statisticsandeconomicdata).Therequiredaccuracyoftheforecastdependsontheintendeduse;typicalNomenclaturerequiredaccuracyforshorttermloadforecastingis1-2%Cl],andlessaccuracyiscommonlyconsideredac-a,b,cFouriercoefficientsceptableformediumandlongtermforecasts.ItisAMatrixof
8、coefficientsinaquadraticnaturaltocriticallyinve
