Macroeconomic Forecasting

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1、MACROECONOMICFORECASTINGMacroeconomicForecastingexploresthegapbetweeneconomicmodelsandtheeconomicworld.Ratherthanremovingthepoliticsfromeconomics,RobertEvansarguesthateconomicmodelsarepreciselytheplacewherepoliticsareputin.Thebookprovidesafreshandtimelynewperspectiveonthe

2、emergingdebatesabouttherolesandcontributionsofempiricalmodelstopolicymaking.RobertEvansappliesthetheoriesandmethodsofthesociologyofscientificknowledgetomapouttheintellectualworldofmacroeconomicmodellers.Inthisway,thebookillustratesnotonlythekeyissuesinsciencestudiesbutals

3、oseveralmajordebateswithineconomics.Fromthenormativecommitmentswhichshapedecisionsaboutthevariablestoinclude,totheinterpretativeflexibilityofdataandtheeventualnormalizationofsomeaccounts,thebookshowshoweconomicforecastsaretheproductofbotheconometricevidenceandsociallygrou

4、ndedjudgements.Takingmacroeconomicmodellingandforecasting–asciencewhichaffectspracticallyeverycitizen–asacasestudy,MacroeconomicForecastingprovidesacoherent,sociologicallyinformedviewonthewayinwhichcomputermodelscanbeusedtoinformpolicy.Atatimewhencentralbanksarebeinggiven

5、increasedpowers,thebookprovidesatimelyandcriticalperspectiveonthemodelsusedtotakedecisionsaboutinterestratesandtaxes.MacroeconomicForecastingwillthereforebesuitableforawiderangeofreadersincludingstudentsineconomics,sociologyandmanagement,andpolicymakersinfieldswhereeconom

6、icorothercomputermodelsplayanimportantrole.RobertEvansisalecturerinSociologyatCardiffUniversity.Hisresearchinterestsfocusonthescienceandpracticeofcomputermodellinginpolicymaking.ROUTLEDGESTUDIESINTHEMODERNWORLDECONOMY1INTERESTRATESANDBUDGETDEFICITSAstudyoftheadvancedecono

7、miesKanhavaL.GuotaandBakhtiarMoazzami2WORLDTRADEAFTERTHEURUGUAYROUNDProspectsandpolicyoptionsforthetwenty-firstcenturyEditedbyHaraldSanderandAndrásInotai3THEFLOWANALYSISOFLABOURMARKETSEditedbyRonaldSchettkat4INFLATIONANDUNEMPLOYMENTContributionstoanewmacroeconomicapproach

8、EditedbyAlvaroCenciniandMauroBaranzini5MACROECONOMICDIMENSIONSOFPUBLICFINANCEEssaysinhonourofVit