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时间:2019-07-02
《基于灰色理论的在役桥梁剩余使用寿命预测及改建方案评价》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、重庆交通大学硕士学位论文基于灰色理论的在役桥梁剩余使用寿命预测及改建方案评价姓名:卢连连申请学位级别:硕士专业:管理科学与工程指导教师:李红镝20080301ABSTRACTAssessm口ltoftheservicedbridgeisthepreparatoryworkofthebridge’Smaintenanceandreinforcement,inaccordancewiththebridge’Sassessmentresultstodctenllinematwhemefthereisaneedformaintenan
2、cetothebridges.Theforecastofthebridgeremaininglifeisaveryimportantrespectoftheassessment,tlleretore'fesea】盹hingthemethodsofpredictingremainingusefullifeoftheexistingbridgeisofgreatsignificance.Toabridge,thereisaselectionofarationalconversionpro乒锄,somatme觚savailablem
3、aximizethebenefits,inthesametimethebridgecallbereinforcedinthemosteffective.Accordingtogreynatureofabridge’sassessfactors,thepapermainlyusedgreysvstantheorytoresearch.Basedontheoldinformation,presentinformationandnon.deteⅡniIlisticinformation,greyforecast,asagreymod
4、el(GM),Wasestablishedtoforecastthechange.tendencyofthesystem,whichprovidesthefoundationforlayoutarlddecision.ThepaperexplorationandresearchtheusingoftheoryofgreysystemtoforecaStmeremainingusefullifeofmebridgesandevaluateoftheconverslonpro目砌s.Papersfirstintroducedthe
5、basictheoryofgreysystem,includingtheprincipleofmoddingandtestingmethods,andthenaccordingtothecharacteristicsofabridge,slifeprediction,thepaperadoptedtheimprovedGM(1,1)modelandgrey。exponentialsmoothingmodeltopredictabridge’stechnologylifeandeconomicliferespectively.C
6、arriesontheappraisaltothebridgeismainlytomakeab甜erdecision-mal(in&namelytoabridgewhetherneedsreinforcementreconstruction・Ifthebridgeneedstocarryonthereconstruction,weshouldselectthebestreconstructionplan.Thepaperhasconductedtheexplorationresearchtothebridgereconstru
7、ctionplan's嬲seSsmentmemod,usingtheashinterrelatednessandtheanalytichierarchymethoduniontoappraisethebridgereconstructionplan.KEYWORDS:Inservicebridge;Technicallife;Economiclife;Programevaluation;Grayforecast;Grayconnection;Analytichierarchy重庆交通大学学位论文原创性声明本人郑重声明:所呈交的
8、学位论文,是本人在导师的指导下,独立进行研究工作所取得的成果。除文中已经注明引用的内容外,本论文不包含任何其他个人或集体已经发表或撰写过的作品成果。对本文的研究做出重要贡献的个人和集体,均已在文中以明确方式标明。本人完全意识到本声明的法律结果由本人承担。学位论文作者签名:幸幽
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