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1、ABGlobalResearch10June2019EquitiesGlobalRealEstateStrategyRealEstateGlobalWhatdoesUSD1trillioninAUMthink?Whatare239respondentsthinkingaboutlistedrealestate?WeengagedUBSEvidenceLabtohelpwithour16thAnnualInvestorSurvey,gaugingtheviewsof239marketparticipantsmanagingoradvisinga
2、pproximatelyUS$1,050bninAUMinaggregate.Respondentsarewelldiversifiedbygeography;71%investingloballistedrealestate,thebalancearedomesticallyfocused.Strongersectorcallsthanregionalcalls:overcrowdingrisk?Ourkeyfindings:(1)totalreturnexpectationsarelowbutpositive,reflectiveofala
3、tecyclegeneralview.(2)LargestoverweightisoncontinentalEurope,whilethelargestunderweightisontheUK;investorsareneutral-to-positiveonAsia;intheUSthereisadiscrepancybetweenpositioning(tiltednegative)andexpectations(tiltedpositive).(3)Respondentsnowhavestrongersectorviewsthanregi
4、onalviews:Industrialremainsthemostfavouredsector,followingbySpecialty;almostnoonesurveyedbelievesretailwilloutperform;wehaveneverseenamoreconsensusresponse,hintingatovercrowdingrisk.(4)Thegreatestconcernhasshiftedsharplyto'politicalrisk',awayfrom'interestrates'whichwaslastye
5、ar'schiefconcern.(5)Morethantwo-thirdsofrespondentsfavourREITsoverdevelopers,significantlyhigherthanthepasttwoyears.FundflowsandotherimportantmattersInvestorsaretypicallyseeinghigherinflowsthanoutflows,animprovementfromlastyearbutweakerthanthe2014-2016period.Astrongdifferent
6、ialincorporategovernancepersists,withtheUK,USandAustraliaperceivedasgoodbutAsiagenerallyweak.ContinentalEuropeismiddling,buthasbeenimproving.Environmentalsustainabilityfeaturesasaninvestmentdecisionfactorfor81%ofrespondents,ofwhich58%sayithasgrowninimportanceoverthelastyear.
7、Two-in-fiverespondentssaymanagementqualityaccountsformorethanhalftheirdecisionwhenchoosingstocks.Valuation(excludingemergingmarkets)Asof6June,ouruniverseundercoverageistradingata7.4%discounttoourNAVestimate,a2019P/Eat17.6x,19EDPSyieldat3.7%;andweforecast2019-20EEPSgrowthof4.
8、9%.NetdebttoEVis27%.Figure1:Howisyourfundpositionedinlistedrealestate?23%30
