如果疫情控制失败怎 么办全球宏观策略报告.docx

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1、ContentsTheglobaleconomythroughthreedifferenttimelinesofopeningup4Fourrisksandonefalseworry151.Isallthefiscalstimulusleadingtodebtsustainabilityissues?162.ThecontoursofadifferentkindofEMstress223.HowhighcouldUSdefaultsgetto?274.Europeanbanks:Pastdownturnsareapoorguide

2、315.Willmassivefiscalandmonetarystimuluscauseinflation?38Assetviewsacrossthethreescenarios41Equities:Pricedforanear-termrecovery42Rates:Nowiggleroom.Realratesstillattractive44Credit:AsiacreditbetterpositionedthanUS,EU46Currencies:Euro1.20orbust?48EM:Hastheweaknessgone

3、toofar?50Figure1:KeyForecastsScenario1:a)Existingmobilityrestrictionsremaininplaceuntilmid-Mayandthengetlifted.ActivityislargelybacktonormalbyendJune;andb)Covid-19doesnotcomebackdecisively(herdimmunityorprogressoncontainment/treatment)1Q192Q193Q194Q1920191Q202Q203Q204

4、Q2020201Q212Q213Q214Q212021GlobalrealGDP(%q/q,saar)3.93.33.12.83.0-12.9-13.321.38.5-3.24.04.64.83.65.2Fedpolicyrate(bp)*2252251751501500000000000US10y(bp)24120116619219267507575757575100100100Germany10y(bp)-7-33-57-19-19-47-50-50-50-50-25-25000EURUSD1.121.141.091.121.

5、121.101.141.171.201.201.211.211.221.231.23MSCIACWI(%q/q)11.62.9-0.58.624.0-21.7-5.513.26.8-10.78.27.05.82.525.5MSCIEM(%q/q)9.6-0.3-5.111.415.4-23.9-8.1-6.42.7-32.710.76.04.53.326.7USIG(bp)1191151159393272210185175175160150140140140USHY(bp)39137737333633688080070065065

6、060055050050050010yBTPspreadtoBund(bp)256243139160160199225225225225200200175175175Scenario2:Severemobilityrestrictionsgetliftedaroundend-Junebutittakesuntilend-Augustforactivitytolargelynormalise1Q192Q193Q194Q1920191Q202Q203Q204Q2020201Q212Q213Q214Q212021GlobalrealGD

7、P(%q/q,saar)3.93.33.12.83.0-12.9-17.217.09.6-4.54.35.85.24.45.0Fedpolicyrate(bp)*2252251751501500000000000US10y(bp)24120116619219267507575757575100100100Germany10y(bp)-7-33-57-19-19-47-50-50-50-50-25-25000EURUSD1.121.141.091.121.121.101.111.131.151.151.161.171.181.181

8、.18MSCIACWI(%q/q)11.62.9-0.58.624.0-21.7-17.116.06.5-19.97.68.95.34.128.5MSCIEM(%q/q)9.6-0.3-5.111.415.4-23.9-15.2-5.62.9-37