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1、LatAmEquitiesPaper&ForestProductsHowlowcanitgo?GlobalPulp&PaperuGlobalBHKpulppriceshavefallenby20%sinceNov2018,weexpectfurtherweaknessonpoormarketfundamentalsuPulppriceslikelytotestcostsupportlevelsoverseasonallyweaksummermonths;rebounddependsoninventorydrawdownuReiterateBuyratingonSuzanoandHold
2、ratingsonKlabin,CMPCandCopec;TPs/estimatesrevisedonlowerpulpforecastsPulppricesunderpressure…Bleachedhardwoodkraft(BHK)pulppricesinChinahavefallenby20%,withsoftwood(BSK)pulppricesdownby29%,whichinturnhas11June2019JonathanBrandt,CFASrAnalyst,LatAmMetals&Mining,Pulp&PaperHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc.jo
3、nathan.l.brandt@us.hsbc.com+12125254499MarianoSzachtman*Analyst,LatAmMetals&Mining,Pulp&PaperHSBCBankArgentinaS.A.mariano.szachtman@hsbc.com.ar+541141217629EthanKirwinAnalyst,LatAmMetals&Mining,Pulp&PaperHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc.ethan.r.kirwin@us.hsbc.com+12125253035ledtoweaknessintheUSandEurope.P
4、artofthereasonforthesignificantpricereductionisduetothefactthatpriceswereartificiallyhighlastyear,boostedbyplannedandunplannedsupplyoutagesanduncertaintyrelatedtotheChineseenvironmentalpoliciessurroundingrecycledpaperimports.ThishasbeenexacerbatedbyslowingpaperandboarddemandinChina,andseveredest
5、ockingeffortsbypulpbuyersinrecentmonths.…andlikelytotestcostsupportlevels…Despitethe20%fallinpulpprices,withthelatestFOEXpriceofUSD618/t,webelievepricesarelikelytofallevenfurther,despiteSuzano’seffortstostabilizethemarket.OurmarketresearchrevealssmallervolumeshavebeensoldintheUSD530-540/trange.A
6、sweentertheseasonallyslowersummermonths,andwithbloatedinventoryattheproducerandportlevel,webelievenetpricescouldcontinuefallingtocUSD500/t,slightlyabovethetroughseveralyearsago.…duetopoormarketfundamentals.PaperandboarddemandremainsweakinChina,theRMBcontinuestodepreciateandisputtingpressureonthe
7、profitabilityoftheChinesepaperindustry,tradetensionsloomovertheindustry,pulpsupplyhasunexpectedlyincreased,andpulpbuyersarecontenttolive“hand-to-mouth.”Reductionofpulpinventoryneededtospurpricehikes.Globalpulpproducerinvento
