Ray Dalio How the economic machine works[1].pdf

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1、DraftVersionHowtheEconomicMachineWorks–LeveragingsandDeleveragingsTableofContents–HowtheEconomicMachineWorksATemplateforUnderstandingWhatisHappeningNow3AnIn-DepthLookatDeleveragings23WhyCountriesSucceedandFailEconomically55USDeleveraging1930s73TimelineofEventsWeimarRepublicDele

2、veraging1920sTimelineofEvents135Confidential:InternalUseOnly.1PleaseDoNotDistribute.Confidential:InternalUseOnly.2PleaseDoNotDistribute.HowtheEconomicMachineWorksATemplateforUnderstandingWhatisHappeningNowRayDalioCreatedOctober31,2008

3、UpdatedMarch,2012Theeconomyislikeamachine.A

4、tthemostfundamentallevelitisarelativelysimplemachine,yetitisnotwellunderstood.IwrotethispapertodescribehowIbelieveitworks.Mydescriptionisnotthesameasconventionaleconomists’descriptionssoyoushoulddecideforyourselfwhetherornotwhatI’msayingmakessense.Iwillstartwiththesimplethingsa

5、ndbuildup,sopleasebearwithme.Youwillbeabletounderstandandassessmydescriptionifwepatientlygothroughit.HowtheEconomicMachineWorks:“ATransactions-BasedApproach”Aneconomyissimplythesumofthetransactionsthatmakeitup.Atransactionisasimplething.Becausetherearealotofthem,theeconomylooks

6、morecomplexthanitreallyis.Ifinsteadoflookingatitfromthetopdown,welookatitfromthetransactionup,itismucheasiertounderstand.Atransactionconsistsofthebuyergivingmoney(orcredit)toasellerandthesellergivingagood,aserviceorafinancialassettothebuyerinexchange.Amarketconsistsofallthebuye

7、rsandsellersmakingexchangesforthesamethings–e.g.,thewheatmarketconsistsofdifferentpeoplemakingdifferenttransactionsfordifferentreasonsovertime.Aneconomyconsistsofallofthetransactionsinallofitsmarkets.So,whileseeminglycomplex,aneconomyisreallyjustazillionsimplethingsworkingtoget

8、her,whichmakesitlookmorecomplexthanitreallyis.Foranymarket,orforanyeconomy,ifyouknowthetotalamountofmoney(orcredit)spentandthetotalquantitysold,youknoweverythingyouneedtoknowtounderstandit.Forexample,sincethepriceofanygood,serviceorfinancialassetequalsthetotalamountspentbybuyer

9、s(total$)dividedbythetotalquantitysoldbysellers(totalQ