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1、ATemplateforUnderstanding……HowtheEconomicMachineWorksandHowitisReflectedNowRayDalioCreatedOctober31,2008
2、UpdatedMarch,2012Theeconomyislikeamachine.Atthemostfundamentallevelitisarelativelysimplemachine,yetitisnotwellunderstood.IwrotethispapertodescribehowIbelie
3、veitworks.Mydescriptionisnotthesameasconventionaleconomists’descriptionssoyoushoulddecideforyourselfwhetherornotwhatI’msayingmakessense.Iwillstartwiththesimplethingsandbuildup,sopleasebearwithme.Youwillbeabletounderstandandassessmydescriptionifwepatientlygothr
4、oughit.HowtheEconomicMachineWorks:“ATransactions-BasedApproach”Aneconomyissimplythesumofthetransactionsthatmakeitup.Atransactionisasimplething.Becausetherearealotofthem,theeconomylooksmorecomplexthanitreallyis.Ifinsteadoflookingatitfromthetopdown,welookatitfro
5、mthetransactionup,itismucheasiertounderstand.Atransactionconsistsofthebuyergivingmoney(orcredit)toasellerandthesellergivingagood,aserviceorafinancialassettothebuyerinexchange.Amarketconsistsofallthebuyersandsellersmakingexchangesforthesamethings–e.g.,thewheatm
6、arketconsistsofdifferentpeoplemakingdifferenttransactionsfordifferentreasonsovertime.Aneconomyconsistsofallofthetransactionsinallofitsmarkets.So,whileseeminglycomplex,aneconomyisreallyjustazillionsimplethingsworkingtogether,whichmakesitlookmorecomplexthanitrea
7、llyis.Foranymarket,orforanyeconomy,ifyouknowthetotalamountofmoney(orcredit)spentandthetotalquantitysold,youknoweverythingyouneedtoknowtounderstandit.Forexample,sincethepriceofanygood,serviceorfinancialassetequalsthetotalamountspentbybuyers(total$)dividedbythet
8、otalquantitysoldbysellers(totalQ),inordertounderstandorforecastthepriceofanythingyoujustneedtoforecasttotal$andtotalQ.Whileinanymarkettherearelotsofbuyersandsellers,andthesebuyersandsellershavedifferentmotivations,themotivationsofthemostimportantbuyersareusual
9、lyprettyunderstandableandaddingthemuptounderstandtheeconomyisn’tallthattoughifonebuildsfromthetransactionsup.WhatIamsayingisconveyedinthesimplediagrambelow.Thisperspectiveofsupplya
