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1、AnIn-DepthLookatDeleveragingsRayDalioFebruary2012Thepurposeofthispaperistoshowthecompositionsofpastdeleveragingsand,throughthisprocess,toconveyin-depth,howthedeleveragingprocessworks.Thedeleveragingprocessreducesdebt/incomeratios.Whendebtburdensbecometoolarge,delevera
2、gingsmusthappen.Thesedeleveragingscanbewellmanagedorbadlymanaged.Somehavebeenveryugly(causinggreateconomicpain,socialupheavalandsometimeswars,whilefailingtobringdownthedebt/incomeratio),whileothershavebeenquitebeautiful(causingorderlyadjustmentstohealthyproduction-con
3、sumptionbalancesindebt/incomeratios).Inthisstudy,wearegoingtoreviewthemechanicsofdeleveragingsbyshowinghowanumberofpastdeleveragingstranspiredinordertoconveythatsomeareuglyandsomearebeautiful.Whatyouwillseeisthatbeautifuldeleveragingsarewellbalancedanduglyonesarebadly
4、imbalanced.Thedifferencesbetweenhowdeleveragingsareresolveddependontheamountsandpacesof1)debtreduction,2)austerity,3)transferringwealthfromthehavestothehave-notsand4)debtmonetization.Whatwearesayingisthatbeautifulonesbalancethesewellanduglyonesdon’tandwhatwewillshowbe
5、lowishow.Beforeweexaminethese,wewillreviewthetypicaldeleveragingprocess.TheTypicalDeleveragingProcessTypically,deleveragingsarebadlymanagedbecausetheycomealongaboutonceineverylifetimeandpolicymakershaven'tstudiedthem.Asaresult,theyusuallysetpolicieslikeblindmentryingt
6、ocookonahotstove,throughapainfultrialanderrorprocessinwhichthepainoftheirmistakesdrivesthemawayfromthebadmovestowardtherightmoves.Sinceeveryoneeventuallygetsthroughthedeleveragingprocess,theonlyquestionishowmuchpaintheyendureintheprocess.Becausetherehavebeenmanydeleve
7、ragingsthroughouthistorytolearnfrom,andbecausetheeconomicmachineisarelativelysimplething,alotofpaincanbeavoidediftheyunderstandhowthisprocessworksandhowithasplayedoutinpasttimes.Thatisthepurposeofthisstudy.Aspreviouslyexplained,thedifferencesbetweendeleveragingsdepend
8、ontheamountsandpacesof1)debtreduction,2)austerity,3)transferringwealthfromthehavestothehave-nots,and4)debtmonetization.Eacho
