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1、HowtheEconomicMachineWorksATemplateforUnderstandingWhatisHappeningNowRayDalioCreatedOctober31,2008
2、UpdatedMarch,2012Theeconomyislikeamachine.Atthemostfundamentallevelitisarelativelysimplemachine,yetitisnotwellunderstood.IwrotethispapertodescribehowIbelieveitworks.Mydescripti
3、onisnotthesameasconventionaleconomists’descriptionssoyoushoulddecideforyourselfwhetherornotwhatI’msayingmakessense.Iwillstartwiththesimplethingsandbuildup,sopleasebearwithme.Youwillbeabletounderstandandassessmydescriptionifwepatientlygothroughit.HowtheEconomicMachineWorks:“A
4、Transactions-BasedApproach”Aneconomyissimplythesumofthetransactionsthatmakeitup.Atransactionisasimplething.Becausetherearealotofthem,theeconomylooksmorecomplexthanitreallyis.Ifinsteadoflookingatitfromthetopdown,welookatitfromthetransactionup,itismucheasiertounderstand.Atrans
5、actionconsistsofthebuyergivingmoney(orcredit)toasellerandthesellergivingagood,aserviceorafinancialassettothebuyerinexchange.Amarketconsistsofallthebuyersandsellersmakingexchangesforthesamethings–e.g.,thewheatmarketconsistsofdifferentpeoplemakingdifferenttransactionsfordiffer
6、entreasonsovertime.Aneconomyconsistsofallofthetransactionsinallofitsmarkets.So,whileseeminglycomplex,aneconomyisreallyjustazillionsimplethingsworkingtogether,whichmakesitlookmorecomplexthanitreallyis.Foranymarket,orforanyeconomy,ifyouknowthetotalamountofmoney(orcredit)spenta
7、ndthetotalquantitysold,youknoweverythingyouneedtoknowtounderstandit.Forexample,sincethepriceofanygood,serviceorfinancialassetequalsthetotalamountspentbybuyers(total$)dividedbythetotalquantitysoldbysellers(totalQ),inordertounderstandorforecastthepriceofanythingyoujustneedtofo
8、recasttotal$andtotalQ.Whileinanymarkettherearelotsofbuyersandsellers,andthesebuyersandsellershavedifferentmotivations,themotivationsofthemostimportantbuyersareusuallyprettyunderstandableandaddingthemuptounderstandtheeconomyisn’tallthattoughifonebuildsfromthetransactionsup.Wh
9、atIamsayingisconveyedinthesimplediagrambelow.Thisperspectiveofsupplyanddema
