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1、ATemplateforUnderstanding……HowtheEconomicMachineWorksandHowitisReflectedNowRayDalioCreatedOctober31,2008
2、UpdatedMarch,2012Theeconomyislikeamachine.Atthemostfundamentallevelitisarelativelysimplemachine,yetitisnotwellunderstood.IwrotethispapertodescribehowIbelieveitworks.Mydescriptionisnotthesameasc
3、onventionaleconomists’descriptionssoyoushoulddecideforyourselfwhetherornotwhatI’msayingmakessense.Iwillstartwiththesimplethingsandbuildup,sopleasebearwithme.Ibelievethatyouwillbeabletounderstandandassessmydescriptionifwepatientlygothroughit.HowtheEconomicMachineWorks:“ATransactions-BasedApproach”A
4、neconomyissimplythesumofthetransactionsmadeandatransactionisasimplething.Atransactionconsistsofthebuyergivingmoney(orcredit)toasellerandthesellergivingagood,aserviceorafinancialassettothebuyerinexchange.Amarketconsistsofallthebuyersandsellersmakingexchangesforthesamethings–e.g.,thewheatmarketconsi
5、stsofdifferentpeoplemakingdifferenttransactionsfordifferentreasonsovertime.Aneconomyconsistsofallofthetransactionsinallofitsmarkets.So,whileseeminglycomplex,aneconomyisreallyjustazillionsimplethingsworkingtogether,whichmakesitlookmorecomplexthanitreallyis.Foranymarket,orforanyeconomy,ifyouknowthet
6、otalamountofmoney(orcredit)spentandthetotalquantitysold,youknoweverythingyouneedtoknowtounderstandit.Forexample,sincethepriceofanygood,serviceorfinancialassetequalsthetotalamountspentbybuyers(total$)dividedbythetotalquantitysoldbysellers(totalQ),inordertounderstandorforecastthepriceofanythingyouju
7、stneedtoforecasttotal$andtotalQ.Whileinanymarkettherearelotsofbuyersandsellers,andthesebuyersandsellershavedifferentmotivations,themotivationsofthemostimportantbuyersareusuallyprettyunderstandableandaddingthemuptounderstandtheeconomyisn’tallthattoughifonebuildsfromthetransactionsup.WhatIamsayingis
8、conveyedinthesimplediagrambelow.Thisperspectiveofsupplyanddemandisdifferentfromthetraditionalperspectiveinwhichbothsupplyanddemandaremeasuredinquantityandthepricerelationshipbetweenthemisdescribedintermsofelastic
