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1、DraftVersionHowtheEconomicMachineWorks–LeveragingsandDeleveragingsTableofContents–HowtheEconomicMachineWorksATemplateforUnderstandingWhatisHappeningNow3AnIn-DepthLookatDeleveragings23WhyCountriesSucceedandFailEconomically55USDeleveraging1930s73TimelineofEvent
2、sWeimarRepublicDeleveraging1920sTimelineofEvents135Confidential:InternalUseOnly.1PleaseDoNotDistribute.Confidential:InternalUseOnly.2PleaseDoNotDistribute.HowtheEconomicMachineWorksATemplateforUnderstandingWhatisHappeningNowRayDalioCreatedOctober31,2008
3、Updat
4、edMarch,2012Theeconomyislikeamachine.Atthemostfundamentallevelitisarelativelysimplemachine,yetitisnotwellunderstood.IwrotethispapertodescribehowIbelieveitworks.Mydescriptionisnotthesameasconventionaleconomists’descriptionssoyoushoulddecideforyourselfwhetheror
5、notwhatI’msayingmakessense.Iwillstartwiththesimplethingsandbuildup,sopleasebearwithme.Youwillbeabletounderstandandassessmydescriptionifwepatientlygothroughit.HowtheEconomicMachineWorks:“ATransactions-BasedApproach”Aneconomyissimplythesumofthetransactionsthatm
6、akeitup.Atransactionisasimplething.Becausetherearealotofthem,theeconomylooksmorecomplexthanitreallyis.Ifinsteadoflookingatitfromthetopdown,welookatitfromthetransactionup,itismucheasiertounderstand.Atransactionconsistsofthebuyergivingmoney(orcredit)toaselleran
7、dthesellergivingagood,aserviceorafinancialassettothebuyerinexchange.Amarketconsistsofallthebuyersandsellersmakingexchangesforthesamethings–e.g.,thewheatmarketconsistsofdifferentpeoplemakingdifferenttransactionsfordifferentreasonsovertime.Aneconomyconsistsofal
8、lofthetransactionsinallofitsmarkets.So,whileseeminglycomplex,aneconomyisreallyjustazillionsimplethingsworkingtogether,whichmakesitlookmorecomplexthanitreallyis.Foranymarket,orforanyeconomy,ifyouknowthetotalamountofmoney(orcredit)spentandthetotalquantitysold,y
9、ouknoweverythingyouneedtoknowtounderstandit.Forexample,sincethepriceofanygood,serviceorfinancialassetequalsthetotalamountspentbybuyers(total$)dividedbythetotalquantitysoldbysellers(totalQ
