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ID:33086385
大小:5.57 MB
页数:54页
时间:2019-02-20
《基于统计模型的汛期降水预测分析——以义乌市为例》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、万方数据Basedonthefloodseasonprecipitationofyiwuastheresearchobject,thispaperattemptstouseneuralnetworkpredictionmethodandthresholdautoregressivemodelrespectivelytostudythefloodseasonprecipitationofyiwu.Thispaperchosetheelninoeventsandthesubtropicalhighridgelinepositionasantecedentinfluencedfac
2、torswhichhavegoodresponseoffloodseasonprecipitationofyiwu,49yearsof1959-2007floodseasonprecipitationasthetrainingsample,and4yearsoffloodseasonprecipitationof2008—201astestsamples.Thetwomodelswereanalyzedbythreeaspects:thehistoricalsamplefittingprecision,theforecastresultsofindependentsample
3、andactualforecastability.Thefinalresultisusedtoverifythepossibilitytousetheneuralnetworkmodelandthethresholdautoregressivemodelforfloodseasonprecipitationforecastinyiwu,andalsoprovidesthebasisofthetheoryandpracticeoffloodseasonprecipitationforecastmodelinthecomingyears.Themainconclusionsoft
4、hisstudyaresummarizedasfollows:(1)Thispaperstudiesthecharacteristicsoffloodseasonprecipitationofyiwu,andalsothemainfactorsinfluencingprecipitation,provedthefloodseasonprecipitationofyiwuhasagoodresponsetosolaractivity,elninoevents,andpositionofsubtropicalhighridgeline.Onthebasisofmanyresear
5、cherstostudyconclusion,thispaperchoseelninoeventsandthesubtropicalhighridgelinepositionasimpactfactorstoestablishmodels.Thefinaldataresultsconfirmedthatitcanignificantlyreducetheprecipitationforecasterrorwhileselectingtheelninoeventsandpositionofsubtropicalhighridgelineastheearlystageofthei
6、mpactfactor.(2)Neuralnetworkforecastmodelandthethresholdautoregressivemodelareeffectiveprocessingnonlinearhydrologicsystemmodeloffloodseasonprecipitationforecastofyiwucity.BPneuralnetworkforecastingmodelisbetterwhenitcomestothehistoricalsamplefittingprecision,theforecastresultsofindependent
7、sampleandactualpredictionability.However,thedataofneuralnetworkforecastmodelandthresholdpredictionmodelareinsufficient,SOtheprecisionoftheirresultsneedslmprovmg.Keywords:NeuralNetworkForecastModel;ThresholdAutoregressiveModel;FloodSeasonPrecipitation;Imp
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