上海市能耗强度的影响因素分解与预测模型

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1、052025024焦琳上海市能耗强度的影响因素分解及预测模型AbstractInthellmFive-yearproject,Shanghaimakestheplanofreducingitsenergyintensity(energyconsumptionperGDP)by20％comparedtothatof2005．ThisisbothachallengeandanopportunityforthecityofShanghai．ThispaperfocusesonthefactorsthataffecttheenergyintensityofShanghai，espe

2、ciallyindustrialstructureshiftandefficiencyimprovementofenergyconsumptioninthesectors．ThestructuredecompositionanalysisisusedinthePapertofindwhichfactorcontributesmoretothedecliningenergyintensity．neresultshows廿latindifferentperiodthesetwofactorshaddifferentinfluences；however,theefficiency

3、improvementofenergyconsumptionisthemainfactor．Astheindustrialsectorconsumesmostenergy,thispaperalsolooksattheenergyintensityofindustrialsector．Structuredecompositionanalysisisusedtofindthemaincauseofthedecreasingenergyintensityofindustrialsector．Theresultshowsthatthestructureshiftinindustr

4、ialsector,ratherthanefficiencyimprovementofenergyconsumption，contributesmoretothedecreasingenergyintensityofindustrialsector．Thelinksbetweentheindustriesareconstraintsinconsideringchangingstructureofindustrialsectortoreduceenergyintensity．Byintroducinginput-outputmethod，somehi曲energyintens

5、ityindustriesarefoundtohavemoreconnectionswithotherindustries．Atimeseriesmodelisusedtoforecasttheenergyintensityintheperiodofthe11协Five-yearproject．111eresultofthemodelindicatesthattheenergy-savinggoaloflmFive-yearCanbepossiblyachievedforthecityofShanghai．Thelastpartofthepaperpresentstheco

6、nclusionofthisPaperandsomepolicysuggestionsaswell．Keywords：EnergyIntensity,StructureDecompositionAnalysis，IndustrialStructureSlli屯EfficiencyImprovementofEnergyConsumption，ForecastModelChineseLibraryClassi6ca廿on：F222052025024焦琳上海市能耗强度的影响因素分解及预测模型第一章引言1．1选题的背景及理论基础1．1．1选题的背景能源是人类生活最重要的资源之一。能

7、源紧缺是当今世界面临的重要问题，已经成为制约许多国家发展的瓶颈因素。一方面，能源产业是国民经济的基础产业，能源产业的健康发展成为社会经济可持续发展的重要物质基础。我国是经济发展最快的国家之一，同时也是能源生产、消耗大国。另一方面，能源的消耗与环境问题息息相关，由于能源的过度消耗所带来的环境问题如温室效应、环境污染等，也引起人们的普遍关注。不断增长的能源消耗和对化石燃料的过分依赖，使得我国已经成为世界上第二大温室气体排放国，由于能源消耗所带来的生态问题和健康问题日益严重。作为发展中国家，自20世纪90年代以来，我国的