美股房地产行业-住房监测：价格与周转率汇率摩擦仍然存在

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1、Horvers'HousingMonitorPricingvs.Turnover/RatesFrictionRemainsinPlace;QTDCensusSuggestsHDinLine,LOWMissNorthAmericaEquityResearch17July2018Thismonthlyreportdetailsthekeymetricsthatwefollowtogaugethestrengthandstabilityofthehousingmarket.Wegrouptheseintofivecategories:1)spendingpatterns

2、,2)salestrends,3)availability/pricing,4)consumercredit,wages,anddisposableincome,and5)mortgageresets,equitywithdrawals,andapplications(atotalof21differentindicators).·Pricingremainsstrong(+MSD),withCase-Shiller,FHFAhousepriceindex,andNARmediansaleshittingall-timehighs.TheCase-ShillerCo

3、mposite20priceindexwasup6.5%inApril,hittinganall-timehighof210.5vs.thepriorpeakof205.8inApril2006.WhilemarketssuchasPhoenix,Miami,Chicago,andLasVegasarestillwellbelowpeaklevels,theyhavesignificantlyimproved,withPhoenixandLasVegasup~5%and8%,respectively,overthepastsixmonths.Additionally

4、,theFHFAhousepriceindexsetanewhighinMayof262.5,up6.4%YOY,whichis16%higherthantheApril2007peak.TheNARmediansalespeakedinMay,up5.2%YOY.SeeFigures14-16.·But…existingandpendinghomesalesdownYOY.Existinghomesaleswere-3.0%YOYinMayand-0.6%sequentiallyfollowingmixedresultsoverthepastyear.Pendin

5、ghomesales(whichleadsexistingby2-3months)hasbeendownYOYforfivemonthsinarow,withMay-2.2%YOYand-0.5%sequentially.WhileHDandLOWare~75%correlatedtoexistinghomesalesona2-3quarterlag(andtheslowinggrowthremainsanareaofconcern),theyarealsosimilarlycorrelatedtopricingmetrics(whichremainpositive

6、)andthisfactorimpactsmorehomes(~126MMtotalUShouseholdsvs.a~5MMannualexistinghomechurn).Thisfactorseemstobemoreimportantinthiscyclegiventheaginghomebaseandtightfor-saleinventorylevels.SeeFigures5and9.·“HomeImprovement”retailsales+6.2%inJunewithpositiverevisionsinMay.Homeimprovementspend

7、ingincreased6.2%YOYinJune,accelerating60bpsfromMay’s+5.6%(whichwasrevisedup40bps).Onatrendbasis,QTDCensussalesare230bpsbetterthanin1Q,whichsuggestsanin-linecompforHDandashortfallof250bpsforLOW(dataissubjecttorevisionandthereisstillonemonthtogointhequarter,thoughitisthehardestcompareY