港元汇率制度应何去何从

《港元汇率制度应何去何从》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、TheCostofCurrencyStability:HongKong’sExperiencesChe-cheongPoonDecember2001香　港　樹　仁　學　院經　濟　學　系WorkingPaperSeriesEconomicsDepartmentHongKongShueYanCollegeWorkingPaperSeriesDecember2001AllRightsReservedISBN:962-8719-27-0Copyright©2003byHongKongShueYanCollegeInformationontheW

2、orkingPaperSeriescanbefoundonthelastpage.Pleaseaddressanycommentsandfurtherinquiriesto:Mr.Wai-KeeYuenWorkingPaperCoordinatorDepartmentofEconomicsHongKongShueYanCollege10WaiTsuiCrescentBraemarHillRoadNorthPointHongKongFax:28068044Tel:25707110Email:sklee@hksyc.edu21TheCost

3、ofCurrencyStability:HongKong’sExperiencesChe-cheongPoonDepartmentofEconomicsAbstractThisstudyprovidesanargumentagainsttheeconomicjustificationofthelinkedexchangeratesysteminHongKongbecausethecurrenteconomicenvironmentismuchdifferentfromthatin1983.Thepaperconsistsoffivese

4、ctions.Thefirsttwosectionsexaminetheempiricalaswellastheoreticalrelationshipbetweenexchangeratesandthekeymacroeconomicvariables.Thethirdsectionderivesaparadigmtoillustratethetransmissionprocessofeconomicforcesunderthesystem.ThefourthsectionsusetheparadigmtoanalyzeHongKon

5、g’seconomicperformancesincetheintroductionofthesystemandgiveanaccountforthecostofcurrencystability.Thefinalsectiongivesabriefconclusion.Keywords:PurchasingPowerparityTheorem;ExchangeEquation;InterestRateParityTheorem;Fisher’sEquationofInterest;LinkedExchangeRateSystem;De

6、fensiveOperation;BeamBalanceParadigm;EastAsianFinancialCrisis;Negativeequity21___________________________________________________________“Aparticularlysadfeatureofeconomiclifeisthat,nosoonerhavewecollectivelyachievedsomedegreeofunderstandingofcauseandeffect,thancircumsta

7、nceschangesoradicallythatthepainfullyacquiredknowledgeisalreadyoutofdate.”(Hogon&Pearce,pp.14)__________________________________________________________(A)THETHEORETICALRELATIONSHIPBETWEENEXCHANGERATEANDTHEKEYMACROECONOMICVARIABLESTwofundamentaleconomictheoremscanbeusedt

8、oanalyzetherelationshipbetweenexchangerateandmacroeconomicvariables:theyarePurchasingPowerParitytheorem