港元汇率制应何去何从

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1、个人收集整理勿做商业用途TheCostofCurrencyStability:HongKong’sExperiencesChe-cheongPoonDecember2001香　港　樹　仁　學　院經　濟　學　系WorkingPaperSeriesEconomicsDepartmentHongKongShueYanCollege资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途个人收集整理勿做商业用途WorkingPaperSeriesDecember2001AllRightsReservedISBN:962-8719-27-0Copyright©2003byHongKongShueYan

2、CollegeInformationontheWorkingPaperSeriescanbefoundonthelastpage.Pleaseaddressanycommentsandfurtherinquiriesto:资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途Mr.Wai-KeeYuenWorkingPaperCoordinatorDepartmentofEconomicsHongKongShueYanCollege10WaiTsuiCrescentBraemarHillRoadNorthPointHongKongFax:28068044Tel:25707110Email:

3、sklee@hksyc.eduTheCostofCurrencyStability:HongKong’sExperiences资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途Che-cheongPoonDepartmentofEconomicsAbstractThisstudyprovidesanargumentagainsttheeconomicjustificationofthelinkedexchangeratesysteminHongKongbecausethecurrenteconomicenvironmentismuchdifferentfromthatin1983.Th

4、epaperconsistsoffivesections.Thefirsttwosectionsexaminetheempiricalaswellastheoreticalrelationshipbetweenexchangeratesandthekeymacroeconomicvariables.Thethirdsectionderivesaparadigmtoillustratethetransmissionprocessofeconomicforcesunderthesystem.Thefourthsectionsusetheparadigmtoanalyze

5、HongKong’seconomicperformancesincetheintroductionofthesystemandgiveanaccountforthecostofcurrencystability.Thefinalsectiongivesabriefconclusion.Keywords:PurchasingPowerparityTheorem;ExchangeEquation;InterestRateParityTheorem;个人收集整理勿做商业用途资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途Fisher’sEquationofInterest;LinkedEx

6、changeRateSystem;DefensiveOperation;资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途BeamBalanceParadigm;EastAsianFinancialCrisis;Negativeequity资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途___________________________________________________________资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途“Aparticularlysadfeatureofeconomiclifeisthat,nosoonerhavewecollectively资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途a

7、chievedsomedegreeofunderstandingofcauseandeffect,thancircumstances资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途changesoradicallythatthepainfullyacquiredknowledgeisalreadyoutofdate.”资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途(Hogon&Pearce,pp.14)__________________________________________________________资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途(A)THETHEORETICALRELATION