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1、AMERICA,itappears,willgooverthefiscalcliffafterall,ifonlyforafewdays.Butifallgoesasplanned,theworstofthecliff,awitheringcombinationoftaxincreasesandspendingcuts,willbeavoided.AdealnearingcompletionintheSenatewouldmakepermanentthetaxcutsfirstenactedbyGeorgeBushin2001and2003andduetoex
2、pireonDecember31st,exceptforthewealthy.Themarginalrateforindividualsearningmorethan$400,000andcouplesearningmorethan$450,000wouldrisefrom35%toitspre-2001rateof39.6%,whiledeductionswouldbecurbedforsomepeopleearningaslittleas$250,000.Estatetaxeswouldgoup,butnottopre-2001levels,whilera
3、tesoncapitalgainsanddividends,now15%,wouldgoupto20%,stilllessthantheirpre-2001levels.Taxcreditsforfamilies,workersandcollegestudentsfirstintroducedinMrObama’sstimulusplanwillbeextendedforfivemoreyears.AlthoughpassageintheSenateseemedcertain,thebill'sfateintheHouseismoreofawildcard.P
4、artisansonbothsideshatethedeal:liberalDemocratsbecauseitdoesnotraiseratesoneveryoneearningmorethan$250,000,asMrObamahadlongdemanded;Republicans,becausetheyarebeingaskedtoapprovethefirstincreaseintaxratesintwodecadeswhilegettingnospendingcutsinreturn.Nonetheless,passageseemslikely,if
5、onlybecausebothsidesrealisethealternativewouldbemuchworse.IfthecountryenteredJanuarywithnodealinsight,taxeswouldriseonthevastmajorityofhouseholds,ahitworthmorethan$300billion,or2%ofGDP,peryear.SincetheHousewillnotvoteuntilJanuary1stattheearliest,taxeswillrise,atleastforaday.Butmosth
6、ouseholdswillnotnoticebecauseemployersshouldbeabletowithholdtaxesatthesamelevelaslastyearbythetimethefirstpaychecksofJanuarygoout.Byavoidingthathitandfinallynailingdownnumerousfeaturesofthetaxcode,thedealliftsacloudthathadhungovertheeconomyandinvestorconfidence.Butonalmosteveryother
7、point,thedealfallsshortofalreadylowexpectations.Startwithwhatisnotincluded.ThemainelementsofthefiscalcliffweretheexpiringBushtaxcuts;expiringextendedunemploymentinsurancebenefits;anexpiringpayrolltaxcut;automaticspendingcutsworth$110billionperyear,spreadequallyacrossdefenceanddomest
8、icprogrammes(called
