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1、AMERICA,itappears,willgooverthefiscalcliffafterall,ifonlyforafewdays.Butifallgoesasplanned,theworstofthecliff,awitheringcombinationoftaxincreasesandspendingcuts,willbeavoided.AdealnearingcompletionintheSenatewouldmakepermanentthetaxcutsfirstenactedbyGeorgeBushin2001and2003andduetoexpireonDe
2、cember31st,exceptforthewealthy.Themarginalrateforindividualsearningmorethan$400,000andcouplesearningmorethan$450,000wouldrisefrom35%toitspre-2001rateof39.6%,whiledeductionswouldbecurbedforsomepeopleearningaslittleas$250,000.Estatetaxeswouldgoup,butnottopre-2001levels,whileratesoncapitalgain
3、sanddividends,now15%,wouldgoupto20%,stilllessthantheirpre-2001levels.Taxcreditsforfamilies,workersandcollegestudentsfirstintroducedinMrObama’sstimulusplanwillbeextendedforfivemoreyears.AlthoughpassageintheSenateseemedcertain,thebill'sfateintheHouseismoreofawildcard.Partisansonbothsideshatet
4、hedeal:liberalDemocratsbecauseitdoesnotraiseratesoneveryoneearningmorethan$250,000,asMrObamahadlongdemanded;Republicans,becausetheyarebeingaskedtoapprovethefirstincreaseintaxratesintwodecadeswhilegettingnospendingcutsinreturn.Nonetheless,passageseemslikely,ifonlybecausebothsidesrealisetheal
5、ternativewouldbemuchworse.IfthecountryenteredJanuarywithnodealinsight,taxeswouldriseonthevastmajorityofhouseholds,ahitworthmorethan$300billion,or2%ofGDP,peryear.SincetheHousewillnotvoteuntilJanuary1stattheearliest,taxeswillrise,atleastforaday.Butmosthouseholdswillnotnoticebecauseemployerssh
6、ouldbeabletowithholdtaxesatthesamelevelaslastyearbythetimethefirstpaychecksofJanuarygoout.Byavoidingthathitandfinallynailingdownnumerousfeaturesofthetaxcode,thedealliftsacloudthathadhungovertheeconomyandinvestorconfidence.Butonalmosteveryotherpoint,thedealfallsshortofalreadylowexpectations.
7、Startwithwhatisnotincluded.ThemainelementsofthefiscalcliffweretheexpiringBushtaxcuts;expiringextendedunemploymentinsurancebenefits;anexpiringpayrolltaxcut;automaticspendingcutsworth$110billionperyear,spreadequallyacrossdefenceanddomesticprogrammes(called
