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1、www.buffettism.com巴菲特研究中心ResearchCentreforBuffettism巴菲特致股东的信1989年Buffett’sLettersToBerkshireShareholders1989Ourgaininnetworthduring1989was$1.515本公司1989年的净值增加了15亿1billion,or44.4%.Overthelast25years(that千5百万美元,较去年增加了44.4%,is,sincepresentmanagementtookover)our过去25年以来(也就是自从现有经
2、营per-sharebookvaluehasgrownfrom$19.46to阶层接手后),每股净值从19元成长$4,296.01,oratarateof23.8%compounded到现在的4,296美元,年复合成长率annually.约为23.8%。Whatcounts,however,isintrinsicvalue-the然而真正重要的还是实质价值-这个figureindicatingwhatallofourconstituent数字代表组合我们企业所有份子合理businessesarerationallyworth.Withper
3、fect的价值,根据精准的远见,这个数字foresight,thisnumbercanbecalculatedby可由企业未来预计的现金流量(包含takingallfuturecashflowsofabusiness-in流进与流出),并以现行的利率予以折andout-anddiscountingthematprevailing现,不管是马鞭的制造公司或是行动interestrates.Sovalued,allbusinesses,from电话的业者都可以在同等的地位上,manufacturersofbuggywhipstooperator
4、sof据以评估其经济价值。cellularphones,becomeeconomicequals.BackwhenBerkshire'sbookvaluewas$19.46,当伯克希尔的帐面价值是19.46美元intrinsicvaluewassomewhatlessbecausethe之时,由于主要的资产多属于纺织事bookvaluewasentirelytiedupinatextile业,所以实质的价值大概比帐面价值businessnotworththefigureatwhichitwas要少一点,但时至今日我们企业的价carried.
5、Nowmostofourbusinessesareworthfar值却早已较帐面价值多的多,这代表morethantheircarryingvalues.Thisagreeable着伯克希尔实质价值成长的速度要比evolutionfromadiscounttoapremiummeansthat帐面价值每年平均23.8%的复合成长Berkshire'sintrinsicbusinessvaluehas率还要再高一些。compoundedataratethatsomewhatexceedsour23.8%annualgrowthinbookva
6、lue.Therear-viewmirrorisonething;thewindshield后照镜是一回事,雨刷又是另外一回isanother.Alargeportionofourbookvalueis事,我们帐面价值大部分是反应我们representedbyequitysecuritiesthat,with所持有的有价证券,而这些有价证券minorexceptions,arecarriedonourbalance除了少数的例外,又大多以市价在资sheetatcurrentmarketvalues.Atyearendthese产负债表上列示
7、,在去年年底这些有securitieswerevaluedathigherprices,价证券较之过去,又以比实质价值呈relativetotheirownintrinsicbusinessvalues,现更高的价格,一方面当然是因为thanhasbeenthecaseinthepast.Onereason1989年股市的飙涨,另一方面则是这isthebuoyant1989stockmarket.Moreimportant,些有价证券的价值得到大家的认同,thevirtuesofthesebusinesseshavebeenwidely也就
8、是说过去他们的股价曾经相当的recognized.Whereasoncetheirstockpriceswere低,但这种情况如今已不复存在。inappropriatelylow