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1、鱼雷使用维护费用的模糊灰色预测模型//.paper.edu.cn-1-中国科技论文在线FuzzyGreyGM(1,1)ModelofMaintainingCostforTorpedoLiangQingwei,ZhaoMinquan,YangPu(CollegeofMarine，NorthwesternPolytechnicalUniversity,XiAn710072)Foundations:教育部博士点基金(No.200806991022)Abstract:Establishthegreymodelofmain
2、tainingcostfortorpedo,selectingthedataforseveralyears.Tosolvethisproblemthathistoricaldataatdifferenttimehavedifferenteffectsonthemodelprediction,processedrawdatausingfuzzymethod.Atthesametime,weakentherandomnessofthedatabyprocessingofweakeningbufferoperator.
3、Simulationshowsthatthismethodissatisfactory．Keywords:Torpedo;maintainingcost;WeakeningBufferOperator;GM(1,1)model0IntroductionThereareseveralfeaturesofthetorpedo,suchashighprocurementcosts,longerusing.Accordingtostatistics,maintenancecostsofweaponsisusually3t
4、o20times[1]topurchasecost.Maintainingcostoftorpedoisstaggering.Itisimportantforequipmentoperatingmanagementandcapitalmanagement,predictingthemaintenancecostoftorpedothenextfewyearsaccuratelyandquickly.Inthispaper,weestablishgreymodelfirst,then,weimprovedthemo
5、del,in6><#00aa00'>viewofthissituationthattheinherentshortcomingsofgreymodelandthefeatureoftorpedo’smaintenancecosts.Greypredictionmodelhastheadvantage,suchaslessinformation,higherprecision.Andwedonotneedconsidertherelevantfactors.Usually,predictionswillbeaffe
6、ctedbytwofactors.First,Wecannotreasonablydeterminethelengthoftheoriginaldata,accuracywillbeaffectedwhethertooshortortoolong;Second,Theamountofinformationoftheoriginaldatawilldeclinebyoutsideinterference,intimesequence,the“old”data,thelessvalue.Allinformationi
7、nthegreymodelisequivalent.Forthefirstproblem,wecanimproveitusingthegreymetabolicmodel[2][3].That’smeansthatremovetheoldestinformation,increaseanewinformation,tomaintainthesamemodeldata.Forthesecondproblem,giventhelargermembershipofnewinformationinthemodeling.
8、Buttheimpactofhistoricaldataonthesystemlevelisfuzzy,andquantitativeinformationisdifficulttoobtain.So,weappliedfuzzytheoryintothegreymodel.1FuzzyoriginaldataTherawdatasequenceisknown:()()(
