modelling the moral dimension of decisions决策的道德维度建模

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1、ModellingtTheMoralDimensionoOfDecisionsKatieSteele,UniversityofQueenslandInthispaperweexploretheconnectionsbetweenethicsanddecisiontheory.Inparticular,weconsiderthequestionofwhetherdecisiontheorycarrieswithitabiastowardsconsequentialistethicaltheories.We

2、arguethatalthoughthereisasenseinwhichotherethicaltheoriescanbeaccommodatedbystandarddecisiontheory,theseethicaltheoriesarenotnaturallysuitedtotheprojectofmaximisingexpectedutility.Inparticular,wearguethatthemotivationfortheotherethicaltheoriesandthepsych

3、ologicalprocessesoftheagentswhosubscribetothoseethicaltheoriesarelostorpoorlyrepresentedintheresultingmodels.1.INTRODUCTIONDecisiontheoryhastwocomponents:probabilitiesandutilities.Fromtheformalpointofview,thesetwocomponentsplaysymmetricalrolesindecisiont

4、heory.Foreachact–statepair(oroutcome)weassignaprobabilityandautility,thenwemultiplythesetogetherandsumtheproductsacrosseachact.Theresultingsumwecalltheexpectedutility.Standarddecisiontheorythentellsustochoosetheactwiththegreatestexpectedutility(ifthereis

5、suchanact).Thisisallveryfamiliar.Whatwedrawattentiontoisthat,intermsoftheformaldecisioncalculus,probabilitiesandutilitiesaretreatedsimilarly—theyarejusttworealnumberstobemultipliedandthenadded.Thesimilaritiesbetweenprobabilitiesandutilitiesrunevendeeper.

6、Bothareconstrainedbyaxiomatictheories:probabilitiesbytheKolmogorov(1956)axiomsandutilitiesbyvonNeumann-Morgenstern(1944)utilitytheory.Theseaxiomatictheoriesplaceminimalstructuralconstraintsonprobabilitiesandutilities.NotesOnemightargueaboutwhethertheresp

7、ectiveaxiomsareinfactminimalconstraints.Wewon’tpursuesuchissueshere.Ourinterestliesinwhatotherconstraintsweneedinadditiontotheaxioms.(Otherrepresentationtheorems,suchasSavage’s(1954)expectedutilitytheory,explicitlybindtogetherbeliefandpreference,andthust

8、heresultingprobabilityandutilityfunctions.)Whicheverwaywejustifytheirconnectiontobelieforpreference,tTheaxiomsensurethattherearenoviolationsofconsistency.Forexample,theKolmogorovaxiomsruleoutprobabilitiesthatdon’tsumto1,so