the rising risks of a global l-shaped near depression and stag-deflation

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1、From:http://www.rgemonitor.com/index.phpAuthor:NourielRoubiniTheRisingRisksofaGlobalL-ShapedNearDepressionandStag-DeflationEmailPrintShareDeliciousDiggFacebookredditTechnoratiNourielRoubini

2、Mar2,2009IjustarrivedtoHongKongandIwillnextvisitIndialaterthisweek.When 

3、thefirstthingyouhear-fromyour driveruponarrivaltotheairportinHongKong-isthatbusiness andoccupancyinhotelsisdownmorethan30%youalreadyknowthisisaveryuglyrecessionintheentireAsianregionasHongKongisaneconomicbarometerfortradeandeconomicactivityalloverAsia.Forthosewh

4、oarguethatthesecondderivativeofeconomicactivityisturningpositive(i.e.economiesarecontractingbutaslowerratethaninQ4of2008)thelatestdatadon’tconfirmthisrelativeoptimism.InQ4of2008GDPfellbyabout6%intheUS,6%intheEurozone,by8%inGermany,by12%inJapan,by16%inSingaporean

5、dby20%inSouthKorea.SothingsareevenmoreawfulinEuropeandAsiathantheUS.SoletusdiscussnextwhythereisarisingriskofaglobalL-shapeddepressionthatwouldbeevenworsethanthecurrentuglyandpainfulU-shapedglobalrecession:First,notethatmostindicatorssuggestthatthesecondderivati

6、veofeconomicactivityisstillsharplynegativeinEuropeandJapanandclosetonegativeintheUSandChina:somesignalsthatthesecondderivativewasturningpositiveforUSandChina(astabilizingISMandPMI,creditgrowinginJanuaryinChina,commoditypricesstabilizing,retailsalesupintheUSinJan

7、uary)turnedouttobefakestarts.FortheUS,theEmpireStateandPhillyFedindexofmanufacturingarestillinfreefall;initialclaimsforunemploymentbenefitsareuptoscarylevelssuggestingacceleratingjoblosses;thesalesincreasesinJanuaryisafluke(moreofareboundfromaverydepressedDecemb

8、erafteraggressivepost-holidaysalesthanasustainablerecovery).ForChinathegrowthofcreditinChinaisonlydrivenbyfirmsborrowingcheaptoinvestinhigherreturningdepositsnottoinvest;andsteelpricesinChinahaveresumedtheirsharpfall.ThemorescarydataarethosefortradeflowsinAsiawi

9、thexportsfallingbyabout40to50%inJapan,Taiwan,Koreaforexample.EvencorrectingfortheeffectofthenewChineseYearexportsandimportsaresharplydowninChinawithimportsfalling(-40