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1、5January2018AsiaPacific/ChinaEquityResearchInsuranceChinaInsuranceSectorResearchAnalystsINDUSTRYPRIMERCharlesZhou,CFA85221016177charles.zhou@credit-suisse.comHighermarginthroughprotectionshiftEddieZhou85221016192Figure1:Salesoflong-termprotectiontoboostoverallmargineddie.zhou@credit-suisse.com1
2、00%PingAnmarginbyproduct80%60%40%20%VNBmargin(APEbasis)0%For1H17,PPP=premiumpaymentperiod.Source:Companydata,CreditSuisseestimates■L/Tprotectiontodrivesustainablegrowth.Weremainconfidentaboutgrowthoutlookandexpectmid-teenVNBgrowthin2018,drivenby:(1)highermarginfromproductmixshifttowardsL/Tprote
3、ction;(2)agencyexpansioninqualityandscale.Despiterecentheadwindsfromsalesofsavingtypeinsurance(short-PPP),weexpectinsurerstocontinuedevotingincreasedresourcestoagencychannel,andqualityissettoimprovewithmarginexpansionfromprotectionshift,akeythemetohelpliftsectorvaluationthisyear.Lookingbeyondne
4、ar-termtrends,China,theworld’sthirdlargestlifeinsurancemarket,isstillunder-insured,andfourstructuraldriversshouldunderpinsustainablegrowth:(1)lifestyleupgrades,(2)wealthreallocation,(3)healthcaredemand,(4)growingageingpopulation.■Tailwindsfrommacroandregulation.Insurersseemultiplebenefitsfromth
5、erisingCN10Ygov’tbondyield(CS12Mf’cast:4.25%),includingboostonearningsfromlifereserverelease.Ampleresidualmarginunderpinssustainableprofitability.CS’strategistexpects16%upsideinSHCOMPin2018,acatalystforinsurancestocks.Lastly,weseefavorableregulations(e.g.taxdeferredpensioninMar),creatingabenign
6、landscape.■P&Cgrowthmoderates,butprofitabilityprotected.Premiumgrowthwouldmoderatetohighsingledigitlevel,withcontinuedpressureonmotor,butprofitabilityislargelyintactgivenCIRC’sstringentmonitoringinplace.Largeplayerswouldachievebettermargins,thankstoscaleadvantages.Insuretechispoisedtotransformt
7、hesectorbysatisfyingunmetneeds.■RetainOVERWEIGHTview.WeretainourOVERWEIGHTviewandliftEPSby0-16%,VNBmultipleby0.5-2.0x,andTPby4-15%formostlistedinsurers(exceptionChinaLife).ThesectoristradingataninexpensiveP/GroupEVof0.99xandrisk-r
