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1、31October2018ChinaEQUITIESINSURANCE3Q18resultswrap:It’sstillaboutlifeChinaInsuranceTHISCONTENTMAYNOTBEDISTRIBUTEDTOTHEPEOPLE'SREPUBLICOFCHINA(THE"PRC")(EXCLUDINGSPECIALADMINISTRATIVEREGIONSOFHONGKONGANDMACAO)abc4Ameaningfulrecoveryinlifenewbusinessremainselusi
2、vebasedon3Q18disclosure4Thedurationandmagnitudeoftheslowdowncontinuestosurprisenegatively;wecutlifeNBVestimatesby2-12%4PingAnH/Aleadsthewayandremainsourtoppick;downgradeNewChinaLife-HtoHold(fromBuy),andupdateTPsLifenewbusinessmomentumremainsthemainfocus:Ameanin
3、gfulrecoveryinlifenewbusinessdidnotemergein3Q18results.Thedurationandmagnitudeofthelifenewbusinessslowdowncontinuestodisappointversusourexpectationsasaresult–seeWhatwelearntfrom1H18results,6September2018.Thatsaid,theorderofbest-to-worstisinlinewithourexpectatio
4、nswithPingAnleadingtheway(FYP+4%3Q18/3Q17and-7%9M18/9M17),followedbyChinaPacific(flatand-15%),NCI(both-26%)andChinaLife(-47%and-36%).Inaddition,PingAnwastheonlycompanytodiscloselifeNBV,whichwasup11%over3Q18/3Q17from10%over2Q18/2Q17,anddown7.5%over1Q18/1Q17.Ourn
5、ewforecastsassumePingAn’s2018eNBVgrows5.5%(9.4%previously),ChinaPacificfalls12%(from-10%),ChinaLifefalls24%(from-17%)andNCIfalls11%(from+1%).Earningswereamixedbag,butonlyPingAnprovidesusefulinsights:PingAn’sGroupOPATrose17%over3Q18/3Q17or21%over9M18/9M17withpar
6、ticularlystronggrowthfromlife,otherassetmanagementandFintech&HealthtechpartlyoffsettingweaknessfromP&C,SecuritiesandTrustbusinesses.Meanwhile,ChinaPacificandNCIearningswerebroadlystablewhileChinaLiferesultswerehitbymarketeffects.PingAnH/A(Buy/Buy)remainsourtopp
7、ickinChinaInsurance.WedowngradeNCI-HtoHoldgivenmateriallyslowernewbusinessmomentumthanpreviouslyexpected,andretainNCI-AonReduce.Meanwhile,weretainChinaPacificH/AatBuy/HoldandChinaLifeH/AatBuy/Reduce.WereviseourNBV,EV,BV,EPSandourtargetpricesfollowingresultsandm
8、arkingtomarket.Exhibit1:SummaryofratingandtargetpricechangesKaileshMistry*,CFAHeadofFinancialsResearch,AsiaPacificTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedkailesh.mis
