麦格理-美股-宏观经济-通缩基调下的通货膨胀

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1、GLOBALWhatcaughtmyeye?v.87InflationarynoteinadeflationarytuneInthisissueweaskwhetherinvestmentlandscapehastransitedfromdisinflationtoinflationandhowsimilarcurrentenvironmentisto‘67or‘87regimechanges.The1950s-60swasthe‘GoldenAge’.Itwasatimeofreconstructionandrisingproductivity;lowunemploymentandsubd

2、uedinflation.IntheDMs,itwasalsoaperiodofmasscollegeenrolments,jobsecurityanddeclininginequalities.Itledtoasecularbullequitymarketthatlastedalmosttwodecades.Thefirstsignsoftroubleappearedinlate‘60sandby‘70s,investorsenteredadifferentworld.StateactivismdestroyedtheBrettonWoodsmonetarysystemandgaveIns

3、idebirthtomodernfiatcurrencies.Theageofinflationwasborn.Through‘70s-80sandinto‘90s,theinvestmentlandscapewasdominatedbyinflationaryconcerns,Howdifferentistodayto1960s?2causingnegativecorrelationbetweenratesandequities.InflationwastheUS$,Equities&Bonds–onthewarpath12bogeyman,withequityinvestorsfeari

4、ngharshCBresponses.Hence,fromDegreeofcontagion–thekeysignal20late‘60suntilwellinto‘80smostequitieswereinsecularbearmarketterritory.Appendices23In1990s,environmentunderwentaradicalchange.Thebacklashagainststateactivismledtofreemarketphilosophies.ItinauguratedaworldofrapidUS–GreatSecularEquitiesBearM

5、arket–financialization;butitwasalsoanageofpersistentlyfallinginflationandcostof1968-1982;realSPXof’68regainedin‘92capital.Theglobalde-regulationofproduct,labourandcapitalmarketshasintegratedmassivesupplyofEMlabour.ButitalsoemptiedDMsmiddleclass,800180raisedinequalitiesandunleashedpoliciesthatreplac

6、edstagnantincomeswith160700SecularBearMarketassetsandleverage.ItgavebirthtoGreenspan‘put’,focusonavoidanceof140600120volatilities&provisionofampleliquidity.Theconsensusthat‘inflationarybeast’500100wascontainedmorphedbythemid-2000sintoafearthatdeflationwasthe40080newbogeyman;hencerates-equitiescorre

7、lationturnedpositive.Equitiesrelied60onCBsrisksuppressionandcontainmentofdeflationviaassetswealthimpact.3004020020Arewewitnessingaregimechange?Proponentsarguethatdisinflationary96811970197219741976197819801