瑞信-原油图表集-2017.7.6-the flowing oil chartbook more seller than buyers

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1、TheFlowingOilChartbookJuly6,2017RESEARCHANALYSTSJanStuartEdwardWestlakeResearchAnalystResearchAnalyst212-325-1013212-325-6751jan.stuart@credit-suisse.comedward.westlake@credit-suisse.comJohannesVanDerTuinJonathanAronsonAbrahamKahnResearchAnalystResearchAnalys

2、tResearchAnalyst212-325-4556212-325-1014212-325-3210johannes.vandertuin@credit-suisse.comjonathan.aronson@credit-suisse.comabraham.kahn@credit-suisse.comDISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCL

3、OSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsidert

4、hisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.TableofContentsTheBigPictureTheInternationalSceneOilMacroUSGulfCoast(USGC)PermianMid–ContinentWestCoastEastCoastTechnicalsNGLsOtherIncludingVMT,RackMargins,&Fixtures2Headlines–What’sMoving…MoreSeller

5、sthanBuyersWTItests$44/bafterclosingabove$47/bonJuly3,sellingthrougha13+mbsdrawonUScommercialinventoriesOnedatapointdoesnotmakeatrend,andonedatapointdoesnotturnaroundthebearishfreighttrain.Nonetheless,weareencouragedtoseeanearly~2Mb/ddrawintheDoEweeklies.Op

6、ectomeetinSt.PetersburgJuly24toreviewcompliancewithproductioncutsRussianofficialshavesaidtheyopposedeeperproductioncutsatthetalks(Bloomberg)andRussianenergyministerAlexanderNovaktoldReutersthatoilinventorieswillhavefallensubstantiallybyQ12018(Bloomberg).Butwi

7、thmarketsseeminglyconvincedthatoilinventorieswillnothavefallensubstantiallybyQ12018,itwillbeimportanttomonitorhowthelanguageevolvesmovingforward.BloombergreportsthatNigeriaisinvitedtothemeetingandtheWallStreetJournalreportsthatOpecisconsideringproductioncapsf

8、orLibyaandNigeria.Productioncapsmaytiltriskperceptionsaroundthetwocountries,butwon’tdomuchtofurthertightenglobaloilmarkets,asacapisnotacut,andacutseems,onthefaceofit,verydifficulttonegoti