穆迪-西班牙-信贷业-公投后西班牙主权信用风险消退

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1、SOVEREIGNANDSUPRANATIONALSECTORIN-DEPTHSovereign&Supranational16October2017Spain’sSovereignCreditRiskRecedingPost-ReferendumSpain’ssovereigncreditriskmeasuredeclinedintheweekendedOctober13followingamessyreferendumvoteontheprospectofCataloniasecedingfromSpain.Thecountry’sSo

2、vereignEDF™(ExpectedDefaultFrequency)metric1,whichmeasurestheexpectedContactsprobabilityofdefaultoverafive-yeartimehorizon,dippedfrom0.27%atthestartoftheIrinaBaronweekto0.24%onThursday,beforefinishingtheweekat0.25%.Thefive-yearCDSspreadAsstDir-ResearchAssociateeasedfrom77b

3、pto69bpovercourseoftheweek.TheSovereignEDFmetricforSpainirina.baron@moodys.comhasrangedbetweenimpliedratingsofBaa1andBaa2overthepastyear,puttingitcloselyXianLi212-553-1404alignedwiththeMoody’sInvestorsService(MIS)ratingofBaa2.ASectorCommentreleaseSeniorResearchbyMISfollowi

4、ngthereferendumsuggeststhatwhiletheCatalanindependenceisunlikely,itAnalystwouldhaveabroadlynegativecreditimpact2.Theagencystatedthat:“givenitssignificantxian.li@moodys.comcontributiontoSpain'sGDP,Catalonia’ssecessionwouldresultintheremainingKingdomABOUTCAPITALMARKETSRESEAR

5、CHofSpainbeingasmallereconomywithreducedtax-raisingabilities—whilestillretainingAnalysesfromMoody’sCapitalMarketssignificantcreditstrengthsandmostlikelyaninvestment-graderating.”Research,Inc.(CMR)focusonexplainingsignalsfromthecreditandequitymarkets.Spain’sSovereignEDFtren

6、dwasvolatileintherecentweeksastheCatalanpeoplepreparedThepublicationsaddresswhethermarkettovoteonindependencefromSpain,despitethereferendumbeingruledillegalbythesignals,intheopinionofthegroup’sanalysts,Spanishcourts.TheCatalonianregion,whichconsistsof7.5millionpeople(rough

7、ly16%ofaccuratelyreflecttherisksandinvestmentthepopulationofSpain)isanimportantpowerhouse,generatingnearly20%ofthecountry’sopportunitiesassociatedwithissuersandsectors.CMRresearchthuscomplementstheGDP.FollowingtheOctober1referendum,Spain’sSovereignEDFreachedathree-monthfun

8、damentally-orientedresearchofferedbyhighof0.28%.However,therecentdeclineofthemetricto0.25