资源描述：
《穆迪-韩国-主权信贷-韩国的主权信用风险：友善背后的平静》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、SOVEREIGNANDSUPRANATIONALSECTORIN-DEPTHSovereign&Supranational12January2018SouthKorea’sSovereignCreditRisk:CalmerAgainstaFriendlierBackdropAfterayearofvolatilereactiontopoliticalturmoilinandaroundtheKoreanpeninsulain2017,SouthKorea’s5-YearEDFTM(ExpectedDefaultFrequency)measureofitssovere
2、ignContactscreditrisksmoothlyplummetedinthefirstdaysofthenewyear.OnJanuary1,2018theEDFDanaGordon+1.212.553.0398was0.23%.OnJanuary11itwas0.17%,a26%improvementininvestors’outlookontheAsscDir-SeniorEditorprobabilityofdefaultforthissovereignoverthenextfiveyears.1(Figure1.)dana.gordon@moodys.
3、comIrinaBaron+1.212.553.4307The5-yearCDSspread,amajorinputtotheEDFmodel,alsodroppedin2018,from57bponAssociateDirectorJanuary1to45bponJanuary11.irina.baron@moodys.comTheEDF’shighforthepast12monthswas0.30%inNovember8anditslowwas0.11%inReginaldWhite+1.212.553.4184ResearchAnalystJanuary2017.
4、TheCDSspreadreached77bponSeptember27afterbottomingat44bponreginald.white@moodys.comMarch17.Inearly2017SouthKoreaweatheredamajorinternalpoliticalcrisis,withtheimpeachmentCLIENTSERVICESofPresidentParkGeun-hyeandthentheMay10electionofPresidentMoonJae-intoreplaceAmericas1-212-553-1653him.Asi
5、aPacific852-3551-3077Astheyearadvanced,NorthKorea’srecentmorerapiddevelopmentofbiggernuclearandJapan81-3-5408-4100ballisticweaponsbecamemoreapparent.ThisprecipitatedworrisomediplomatichubbubEMEA44-20-7772-5454andrebukeamongNorthandSouthKorea,theUS,Japan,Chinaandothergovernments,whichroil
6、edSouthKorea’screditriskthroughmuchof2017.Inmid-NovembertheresponseABOUTCAPITALMARKETSRESEARCHofthecreditriskmeasureseasedforaweek,thenstayedatthesomewhatlesselevatedlevelAnalysesfromMoody’sCapitalMarketsassabre-rattlingcalmeddown,butnofurtherdiplomaticprogressseemedimminent.Research,Inc
7、.(CMR)focusonexplainingsignalsfromthecreditandequitymarkets.ThepublicationsaddresswhethermarketHowever,inrecentdaysNorthandSouthKoreaenteredintogeneralnegotiationsforthesignals,intheopinionofthegroup’sanalysts,firsttimeinovertwoyearsand,morespecifically,agreementsweremade
