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1、SOVEREIGNANDSUPRANATIONALSECTORIN-DEPTHSovereign&Supranational6December2017AmidNearbySabreRattling,SouthKorea’sSovereignRiskTripledThisYear,RecoveredNotablyinNovemberThroughoutmostof2017SouthKorea’smarket-basedmeasuresofsovereigncreditriskContactsrose,its5-yrEDF(Exp
2、ectedDefaultFrequency)metricpeakingonOctober31at0.30%,DanaGordon+1.212.553.0398thecountry'shighestreadingsince2013,fromalowof0.10%onJanuary2.1MostoftheAsscDir-SeniorEditorworrygeneratingtheriskmetricwasinresponsetothegrowinginternationalconflictoverdana.gordon@moody
3、s.comNorthKorea’sdevelopmentofnuclearweaponsandtheballisticmissilestodeliverthemIrinaBaron+1.212.553.4307ontofarawaytargets.AssociateDirectoririna.baron@moodys.comAfterNovember7theEDFmetricdroppedsteadilythroughlastweektoalowof0.23%XianLi+1.212.553.1404onNovember28.
4、ThiscorrespondedwithalullinanyparticularlyalarmingnewsabouttheSeniorResearchAnalystNorthKoreanweaponsorthreatofhostilitiesaboutthem.xian.li@moodys.comOnNovember29NorthKoreaannouncedthesuccessfultestofanewmissilethattheregimeclaimedcouldreachalloftheUSwithaheavywarhe
5、ad(aclaimneutralexpertsCLIENTSERVICESthoughtmightberealistic).AndonNovember29theSouthKoreansovereignEDFstartedAmericas1-212-553-1653togoupagain,thoughnotprecipitously.OverthenextfewdaysitoscillatedupanddownAsiaPacific852-3551-3077slightly.Japan81-3-5408-4100The5-yrC
6、DSspread,oneofthedriversoftheEDFmetric,followedthepatternoftheEDFinEMEA44-20-7772-54542017,thoughwithamorespikeypath,especiallyontheupside.Itbegantheyearat46bp,reacheditshightodateof76bponSeptember28,andparalleledtheEDFdropto59bponABOUTCAPITALMARKETSRESEARCHNovember
7、29.AnalysesfromMoody’sCapitalMarketsResearch,Inc.(CMR)focusonexplainingSouthKorea’sfive-yearsovereignEDFmetriccanbeconvertedtoamarket-impliedrating.signalsfromthecreditandequitymarkets.ThisimpliedratingwasA1inJanuaryandsteadilydroppedduring2017,intandemwiththeThepub
8、licationsaddresswhethermarketsignals,intheopinionofthegroup’sanalysts,riseoftheEDF.FromLaborDaytoThanksgiving,September4toNovember23,itwas
