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1、11December2017AsiaPacific/HongKongEquityResearchCasinos&GamingMacauGamingSectorResearchAnalystsSECTORFORECASTKennethFong85221016395kenneth.kc.fong@credit-suisse.comMassbackinfullforceLokKanChan85221016390lokkan.chan@credit-suisse.comFigure1:RaisingourGGRgrowth
2、forecastNewEstimatesPreviousEstimatesMOP'mn2017E2018E2019E2017E2018E2019EVIP130,084166,529199,458127,366148,262165,911YoYchg27%28%20%25%16%12%Mass122,462142,669171,202120,901135,409154,366YoYchg13%17%20%12%12%14%Slot15,03917,59620,23514,28115,70916,966YoYchg19
3、%17%15%13%10%8%Total267,585326,794390,895262,548299,379337,242YoYchg20%22%20%18%14%13%Source:CreditSuisseestimates■Keepyoureyesonthisstructuralgrowthstory.StrongVIPgrowthstolethelimelightwheninfactthemasssegmenthasbeenquietlyreacceleratinginto4Q17Eatanestimate
4、d+8%QoQ(fastestinrecentyears)or14-15%YoY,despitetougherYoYcomparison.In2018,VIPshouldcontinueitsmomentum,butmoreimportant,weseesignificantupsidecomingfromstill-early-stagemassplayerdevelopmenteffortsthroughimprovedplayeranalytics,whichisfurthersupportedbythega
5、me-changinginfrastructureupgrade(HZMB)andtheintroductionofsupportivepolicy(GBA).■Ourbrandnewangle.(1)Massplayerdevelopmentasamulti-yeardrivercomingfromtheincreaseinplayerconversionfromvisitors(33%ofMacauvisitorsaregamblersversus73%inLasVegas)tomorecasinomember
6、shipsign-ups(only34%ofMacaugamblersarecasinomemberswhonormallyspend2-3xthannon-member),andbetterplayeranalyticsthatallowcasinostoformulateeffectivemarketingtoenhanceplayers'yield(roomtogrowfromthecurrent50%hotelcomprooms).(2)VIPinthemid-recoverycycle,stillseeu
7、pside.Weonlyneedjunketcapitalutilisationtoreach6.5x(midpointof4xnowand9xatpeak);VIPrevenuecouldstillgoupby60%.(3)Highdegreeofoperatingleveragetoboostearningsonrecovery.Asfixedcostnowcontributes24%ofthetotalcost(versus2013:13%),weestimateevery10%GGRincreasetodr
8、ive14%EBITDAor23%earnings.■Reiterateourbullishview.WeliftourGGRgrowthassumptionto22%/20%for2018/19E.Our2018earningsandEBITDAare11%and7%higherthantheStreet,respectively.Ourorderofpr
