德银-澳门-酒店、休闲与博 彩业-vip在2017q4的良好表现令人惊讶

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1、MacauDeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateChina17January2018HongKongMacauConsumerIndustryUpdateHotels/Leisure/GamingMasssurprised;+veforSandsKarenTangMasssurprisedbyoutgrowingVIPsequentiallyin4Q17ResearchAnalystGamingBureau(DICJ)releasedVIPvsmassGGRsplitfor

2、4Q17thisafternoon.Tothemarket'ssurprise,mass-tableGGRgrowthsharplyacceleratedto17%yoy+852-22036141(12%qoq)from7%in3Q17,thefastestyoygrowthsince2Q14.Incontrast,VIPToppicksGGRgrowthsharplydeceleratedto22%yoy(5%qoq)from35%yoyin3Q17.ForWynnMacau(1128.HK),HKD24.40Buyt

3、hefirsttimesince1Q14,massoutgrewVIPsequentially(12%qoqvs5%qoq).Source:DeutscheBankThispointstopotentialpositivesurpriseinthe4Q17resultsforSands(Buy),MGMCompaniesfeaturedChina(Buy)andSJM(Hold)giventheirhighmassexposure.ThismayalsobeGalaxy(0027.HK),HKD62.20Buygoodfo

4、rWynnMacau(Buy)asitmighthavegrabbedmorepremiummassshare.2016A2017E2018EP/E(x)18.726.721.8Massgrowthsharplyaccelerated-visitation+higherbetsIn4Q17,Macaualsosawvisitationgrowthaccelerateto8.6%yoyinOct-NovEV/EBITDA(x)10.117.414.62017from4.2%yoyin9M17.Inparticular,th

5、erewasajumpinvisitationsPrice/book(x)3.14.94.2MGMChina(2282.HK),HKD23.55BuyfromareasinMid-WestChina,suchasHunan,HubeiprovincesandChongqing2016A2017E2018E(Fig5).HigherpropertypricesinTier3citiesseemtohaveliftedconsumerP/E(x)14.832.530.8discretionaryspendingintrave

6、l,includingtripstoMacau.OurproprietarytableEV/EBITDA(x)13.124.716.8countalsopointstorisingaverageminimumbetsinMacau'sBig10casinos(FigPrice/book(x)8.510.68.811).Encouragingly,slotGGRgrowthalsoacceleratedto19%yoyfrom13%yoySandsChina(1928.HK),HKD41.70Buy3Q17(13%qoq)

7、.Thispointstobroad-basedmassgrowth,includingbase-mass.2016A2017E2018EP/E(x)23.027.621.9VIPgrowthdecelerating-Ahiccuporacyclicalturn?EV/EBITDA(x)15.318.816.1Overthepastfewweeks,therewereworryingsignsthatVIPhadsharplyslowedPrice/book(x)7.010.010.0tosingle-digityoyg

8、rowthfrommid-DectoearlyJanontightyear-endliquidityandWynnMacau(1128.HK),HKD24.40BuydisruptionofaZhuhaiundergroundbankingnetwork.Thankfully,thesituation2016A201