德银-澳门-酒店休闲与博彩业-随着春节转换，2月份路途艰难

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1、MacauDeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateChina1February2018HongKongMacauConsumerIndustryUpdateHotels/Leisure/GamingJanbeat;FebtoughcompsasChineseNewYearshiftsKarenTangToughcompsinFebasCNYshiftstomidFebthisyearResearchAnalystDespiteaweakstartto

2、2018,JanuaryGGRendedup+36.4%yoytoMOP26.3bn(MOP847m/day,+16%fromDecrun-rate),beatingthehighendofmarket+852-22036141expectationsof30%growth.However,FebGGRgrowthcouldsharplydecelerateToppickstothehigh-single-digitsasChineseNewYear(CNY)shiftsfromlateJanl

3、astyearWynnMacau(1128.HK),HKD28.05BuytomidFebthisyear.MacauistypicallyveryquietinthetwoweeksbeforeCNY.Source:DeutscheBankMassmktplayersusuallystartgoingonDay3(18Feb2018)andpeakatDay5-6Companiesfeatured(20-22Feb2018),whileVIPstypicallyavoidthecrowdsan

4、donlycometowardsGalaxy(0027.HK),HKD67.00BuytheendofFebthroughmidMarchtoattendspringdinnersandeventsorganized2016A2017E2018Ebyjunketoperators.WereiterateWynnMacau(Buy)asourtoppickonstrongP/E(x)18.728.823.5fundamentals.WealsorecommendbuyingMGMChina(Buy

5、)asthestockhasEV/EBITDA(x)10.118.815.8laggedYTD(+2%vsMacau+9%,MSCIHK+5%),impactedbytheCotaiopeningPrice/book(x)3.15.34.5delayandlower-than-expectedtablequota.MGMChina(2282.HK),HKD23.25Buy2016A2017E2018ESouthboundinterestreturns:JanseesnetbuyingP/E(x)

6、14.832.130.4To29Jan,SouthboundfundsarenetbuyersoftheMacausector(Fig19).EV/EBITDA(x)13.124.516.6NetbuyingasapercentageofturnoverwashighestforMGMChina(5.5%Price/book(x)8.510.58.7ofturnover),followedbyGalaxy(5.4%ofturnover).SJMcontinuestobetheWynnMacau(

7、1128.HK),HKD28.05Buyfavorite--Southboundholds8%ofSJM'sfree-floatmarketcap.Theirholdingsin2016A2017E2018EMGMChinaandWynnMacauhavealsorisentoc.5.5%(Fig20).P/E(x)24.035.121.4EV/EBITDA(x)17.320.715.24Qresult:massoutperformedPrice/book(x)26.149.924.4WynnMa

8、cauandSandsChinabothreportedbetter-than-expectedEBITDAdueSJM(0880.HK),HKD8.11Holdtostrongmassperformance.WynnPalace'smasstableyieldincreasedfromUS2016A2017E2018E$10.5k/table/dayin3QtoUS$14.6k/table/dayin4Q,likelythehighestintown.P/E(x)13.122.221.0The