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1、MacauDeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateChina11December2017HongKongMacauConsumerRecommendationHotels/Leisure/GamingChangeLift2018GGRforecasts;u/gGalaxytoBuy;WynnremainsourtoppickKarenTangVIPstayingstrongerforlongerResearchAnalystAfterourtrip,wehavegrownmoreconfidentinourbullishc
2、allonMacau,esponVIP.WeseeMacauenteringits3rdphaseofVIPresurgence,whereabundant+852-22036141junketliquidityispropellingTop5junketstospeedupVIProomexpansion.KeyChangesIndeed,Macau'slargestjunket,Suncity,expectsitsVIProllingtogrow20%inCompanyTargetPriceRating2018.Assuch,weliftour2018VIPGG
3、Rgrowthforecastfrom15%to21%andlift0027.HK58.60to70.00HoldtoBuyour2018MassGGRgrowthforecastfrom9%to13%.Therefore,weliftour20182282.HK20.00to24.00-MacauGGRgrowthforecastfrom13%to17%.DuetohigherVIPexposure,our1128.HK25.70to28.00-2018EBITDAforecastsaremostbullishforWynnMacau(16%aboveconsen
4、sus)0880.HK7.60to7.00-andGalaxy(13%aboveconsensus).WekeepWynnMacau(Buy)asourTopPickSource:DeutscheBankwithTPofHK$28(22%upside).WeupgradeGalaxyfromHoldtoBuywithTPofToppicksHK$70(22%upside)onstrongVIPperformanceandleadingVIPmarketshare.Galaxy(0027.HK),HKD57.50BuyWynnMacau(1128.HK),HKD23.
5、00BuyMorebullishthantheStreeton2018forecasts,especiallyonVIPSource:DeutscheBankOnourrecentMacautrip,wespoketonumerousjunketoperators.TheyallfeltCompaniesfeaturedthatoverthepast6weeks,underlyingVIPdemandhadgrownstronger,drivenGalaxy(0027.HK),HKD57.50BuybythereturnofSuperVIPs.Atthesameti
6、me,junketliquidityremainabundant2016A2017E2018Eascash-onlyagentsstillrepresent50%ofactiveagents(vs20%atpeakinearlyEV/EBITDA(x)10.116.313.52014).Assuch,Top5junketshaveenoughcapitaltoaddatleast12VIProomsMGMChina(2282.HK),HKD21.95Buyinthenext6months.ThisshouldboostVIPGGRby15-20%onourestim
7、ate.We2016A2017E2018EthusfeeltheStreetstillunderestimatesVIPpotential(consensusexpects2018EV/EBITDA(x)13.124.016.0VIPGGR+9%vs.DBe+21%).SandsChina(1928.HK),HKD38.45Hold2016A2017E2018EMarginslikelystrongerthantheStreetexpectsEV/EBITDA(x)15.317.115.6Inthe3Q17results,abigsurprisewasmargi
