汇丰银行-中国房地产行进入低风险偏好期-20170921-china real estate：caution：entering a period of lower risk appetite-hsbc

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1、21September2017ChinaRealEstateEQUITIESREALESTATECaution:EnteringaperiodoflowerriskappetiteChinaRiskappetitetodwindletowardsyearend;it’sanopportunityMichelleKwok*HeadofRealEstateResearch,AsiaPacifictolockinstronggains,butthere’sstillupsideinselectnamesTheHongkong

2、andShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedmichellekwok@hsbc.com.hkHighgrowthexpectationssuggestastrongpossibilityof+85229966918disappointmentifsalesmomentumisnotmaintainedJizhouDong*,CFAAnalystTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedOurtoppicksareBuy-ratedCOLIandL

3、ongfor;wedowngradejizhou.dong@hsbc.com.hk+85229966629ChinaJinmao,GZR&F,JoyCityandKWGtoHoldAlbertTam*AssociateTakingabreather:Afterarecord-breakingninemonths,theoutlookforthesectorhasTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedalbert.p.h.tam@hsbc.com.hknowbecomemor

4、emixed.Wethinksomestockshaveovershot,whileothersstilloffer+85228224395upside.China’spropertystocksareupanaverageof95%,outperformingtheHSISimonSin*(up28%),representingthesector’sstrongesteverperformanceforthisthree-quarterAssociateTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporat

5、ionLimitedperiod.Therallyhasbeendrivenbystronger-than-expectedsales,butweseetighteningsimon.k.c.sin@hsbc.com.hkmortgageconditionsasariskthatcouldderailmomentum.Wenowexpectriskappetite+85229966514todwindletowardsyear-end.Intermsofvaluation,ourcoverageuniverse,excludin

6、g*Employedbyanon-USaffiliateofHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc,andiscommercialpropertyplays,tradesat7.9x2018ePE,a38%NAVdiscount,closetoonenotregistered/qualifiedpursuanttoFINRAregulationsstandarddeviation(1SD)abovethehistoricalmean.Possibilityofdisappointmentamidexceptionallyh

7、ighgrowthexpectations:Theonethingthatstandsoutfromtheinterim2017resultsseasonisthatdevelopersremainoptimistic,astheyhaveprovidedambitiousguidanceongrowth.Inourview,thereissignificantriskofdisappointmentifcontractedsalesareunabletokeepupwiththestrongYTDmomentum,especi

8、allygoinginto2018.TweakearningsandNAVestimatesaftermarkingtomarketprojectaveragesellingprices:WealsonarrowthetargetdiscountofAgile(