汇丰银行-中国-房地产行业-注意：进入低风险偏好期-20170921-china real estate：caution：entering a period of lower risk appetite-hsbc

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1、21September2017ChinaRealEstateEQUITIESREALESTATECaution:EnteringaperiodoflowerriskappetiteChinaRiskappetitetodwindletowardsyearend;it’sanopportunityMichelleKwok*HeadofRealEstateResearch,AsiaPacifictolockinstronggains,butthere’sstillupsideinselectnamesTheHongkongandShanghaiB

2、ankingCorporationLimitedmichellekwok@hsbc.com.hkHighgrowthexpectationssuggestastrongpossibilityof+85229966918disappointmentifsalesmomentumisnotmaintainedJizhouDong*,CFAAnalystTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedOurtoppicksareBuy-ratedCOLIandLongfor;wedowngradejizhou

3、.dong@hsbc.com.hk+85229966629ChinaJinmao,GZR&F,JoyCityandKWGtoHoldAlbertTam*AssociateTakingabreather:Afterarecord-breakingninemonths,theoutlookforthesectorhasTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedalbert.p.h.tam@hsbc.com.hknowbecomemoremixed.Wethinksomestockshaveovershot

4、,whileothersstilloffer+85228224395upside.China’spropertystocksareupanaverageof95%,outperformingtheHSISimonSin*(up28%),representingthesector’sstrongesteverperformanceforthisthree-quarterAssociateTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedperiod.Therallyhasbeendrivenbystronger

5、-than-expectedsales,butweseetighteningsimon.k.c.sin@hsbc.com.hkmortgageconditionsasariskthatcouldderailmomentum.Wenowexpectriskappetite+85229966514todwindletowardsyear-end.Intermsofvaluation,ourcoverageuniverse,excluding*Employedbyanon-USaffiliateofHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc,andisco

6、mmercialpropertyplays,tradesat7.9x2018ePE,a38%NAVdiscount,closetoonenotregistered/qualifiedpursuanttoFINRAregulationsstandarddeviation(1SD)abovethehistoricalmean.Possibilityofdisappointmentamidexceptionallyhighgrowthexpectations:Theonethingthatstandsoutfromtheinterim2017resultss

7、easonisthatdevelopersremainoptimistic,astheyhaveprovidedambitiousguidanceongrowth.Inourview,thereissignificantriskofdisappointmentifcontractedsalesareunabletokeepupwiththestrongYTDmomentum,especiallygoinginto2018.TweakearningsandNAVestimatesaftermarkingtomarketprojectaveragesell

8、ingprices:WealsonarrowthetargetdiscountofAgile(