中国房地产行进入低风险偏好期

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1、21September2017ChinaRealEstateCaution:EnteringaperiodoflowerriskappetiteRiskappetitetodwindletowardsyearend;it’sanopportunitytolockinstronggains,butthere’sstillupsideinselectnamesHighgrowthexpectationssuggestastrongpossibilityofdisappointmentifsalesmomentumisnotmaintained

2、OurtoppicksareBuy-ratedCOLIandLongfor;wedowngradeChinaJinmao,GZR&F,JoyCityandKWGtoHoldTakingabreather:Afterarecord-breakingninemonths,theoutlookforthesectorhasnowbecomemoremixed.Wethinksomestockshaveovershot,whileothersstillofferupside.China’spropertystocksareupanaverageof95

3、%,outperformingtheHSI(up28%),representingthesector’sstrongesteverperformanceforthisthree-quarterperiod.Therallyhasbeendrivenbystronger-than-expectedsales,butweseetighteningmortgageconditionsasariskthatcouldderailmomentum.Wenowexpectriskappetitetodwindletowardsyear-end.Interm

4、sofvaluation,ourcoverageuniverse,excludingcommercialpropertyplays,tradesat7.9x2018ePE,a38%NAVdiscount,closetoonestandarddeviation(1SD)abovethehistoricalmean.Possibilityofdisappointmentamidexceptionallyhighgrowthexpectations:Theonethingthatstandsoutfromtheinterim2017resultsse

5、asonisthatdevelopersremainoptimistic,astheyhaveprovidedambitiousguidanceongrowth.Inourview,thereissignificantriskofdisappointmentifcontractedsalesareunabletokeepupwiththestrongYTDmomentum,especiallygoinginto2018.TweakearningsandNAVestimatesaftermarkingtomarketprojectaverages

6、ellingprices:WealsonarrowthetargetdiscountofAgile(3383HK),Longfor(960HK),ShuiOnLand(272HK),Sino-Ocean(3377HK)andSOHOChina(410HK)toreflectimprovedoperationalperformanceYTD.Thisresultsinanaverage16%increaseinourtargetpricesforourcoverageuniverse.Selectopportunitiesremain–westi

7、llpreferBuy-ratedCOLI(688HK)andLongfor(960HK):Whilewearestrikingamorecautioustone,wethinkupsideremainsinselectnames.WelikeCOLIasitisaqualitylaggard,whileLongforhascontinuedtodemonstrateanabilitytoscaleupwhilemaintainingcompetitiveprofitability.Ontheotherhand,wedowngradefours

8、tockstoHoldonvaluation–ChinaJinmao(817HK),GZR&F(2777HK),JoyCity(207HK)andKW