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1、SOVEREIGNANDSUPRANATIONALSECTORIN-DEPTHSovereignRiskReport17July2017SovereignRiskDeclinesBroadlyMarketprice-basedmeasuresofsovereigncreditriskmostlyimprovedovertheweekendingJuly14.LatinAmerica’saverageSovereignEDFTM(expecteddefaultfrequency)metric1recordedtheaweeklydrop,at2.5%.E
2、DFsmeasuretheexpectedprobabilityofdefaultoverafive-yeartimehorizon.WithintheLatinAmericaregion,Brazil,Colombia,andMexicoContactsshowedthestrongestweeklyimprovements.Venezuela’seconomyheavilyreliesonoil,whichaccountsfor95%ofexportsandnearlyhalfofgovernmentrevenue.The5.2%riseIrina
3、BaronAsstDir-ResearchintheUScrudeoilpricesoverthepastweekhelpedcontributetotheslightdeclineintheAssociatecountry’sEDFmeasure.Venezuela’sSovereignEDFdeclinedfrom18.9%to18.3%overtheirina.baron@moodys.compastweek.Despitethedecline,measuresofcreditriskinVenezuelastillsuggestitistheX
4、ianLi212-553-1404sovereignlikeliesttodefault,byawidemargin.Notably,thecountry’selevatedEDFmeasureSeniorResearchisinlinewithGreece’sEDFmeasurethreemonthspriortoitsMarch2012distressed-debtAnalystxian.li@moodys.comexchange.Theaverageregionalchangesinsovereignexpectedprobabilitiesof
5、defaultoverthepastABOUTCAPITALMARKETSRESEARCHweekareshowninExhibit1.Asia-Pacificrecordedthelargestweeklydrop,at5.1%.WithinAnalysesfromMoody’sCapitalMarketsthatregion,Philippines,China,andMalaysiashowedthestrongestweeklyimprovements.InResearch,Inc.(CMR)focusonexplainingsignalsfro
6、mthecreditandequitymarkets.theMiddleEast&Africaregion,Qatar,SaudiArabia,andBahrainledthegroup,resultinginThepublicationsaddresswhethermarketanaverage4.5%fallintheSovereignEDFfortheregion.signals,intheopinionofthegroup’sanalysts,accuratelyreflecttherisksandinvestmentopportunities
7、associatedwithissuersandExhibit1sectors.CMRresearchthuscomplementstheAverageWeeklyChangeinSovereignEDFMeasuresbyRegion(%)fundamentally-orientedresearchofferedbyMoody’sInvestorsService(MIS),theratingagency.CMRispartofMoody’sAnalytics,whichisoneofthetwooperatingbusinessesofMoody’s
8、Corporation.Moody’sAnalytics(includingCMR)isleg
