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1、SovereigndoubtsEconomistsareanargumentativebunch.Yetbeforethecrisismostfoundcommongroundinthenotionthatfiscalstimuluswasanobsoleterelic.Monetarypolicyseemedwhollycapableoftamingthebusinesscycle.Governmenteffortstoincreasespendingorcuttaxestobattleunemploymentwouldonlymuc
2、kthingsup.Whencrisisstruckin2008,however,thatconsensusevaporated.Thefrighteningspeedoftheeconomiccollapsespurredgovernmentstoaction,inspiteofeconomists’doctrinalmisgivings.In2009manycountriesrolledoutbigpackagesoftaxcutsandextraspendinginthehopeofbuoyinggrowth.Thisstimul
3、usamountedto2%ofGDPonaverageamongthemembersoftheG20clubofbigeconomies.AmongBarackObama’sfirststepsaspresidentin2009wastosigntheAmericanRecoveryandReinvestmentAct,astimulusplanworth$831billion,oralmost6%ofthatyear’sGDP,mostofittobespentoverthenextthreeyears.Keynestotheres
4、cueSupportersofstimuluslookedtotheideasofJohnMaynardKeynes,aBritisheconomist.Depression,hisacolytesreasoned,occurswhenthereistoomuchsaving.Whentoomanypeoplewanttosaveandtoofewtoinvest,thenresources(includingworkers)fallidle.Firmsandfamiliesmightsavetoomuchbecauseoffinanc
5、ialuncertaintyorbecausetheyarerushingto“deleverage”-toreducetheratiooftheirdebtstotheirassets.Innormaltimescentralbankswouldtrytospurgrowthbyadjustinginterestratestodiscouragesavingandencourageborrowing.Yetbyearly2009mostcentralbankshadreducedtheirmaininterestratesalmost
6、tozero,withoutthedesiredresult.Overindebtedness,somesurmised,mighthavebeenpreventingpeoplefromborrowingasmuchastheywouldlike,whatevertheinterestrate.Governments,Keynesiansreckoned,neededtomakeupforhamstrungfirmsandfamilies,byborrowingandspendingmore(ortaxingless)toputexc
7、esssavingstowork.Whenthereisslackintheeconomy,fiscalstimuluscanbeparticularlypowerfulthankstoa“multiplier”effect.Adollarspentbuildingarailway,forexample,mightgotothewagesofaconstructionworker.Hethenspendstheextraincomeongroceries,enrichingashopkeeper,whointurngoesshoppin
8、ghimselfandsoon.Everydollarofstimuluscouldthusresultintwodollarsofstimuluscouldthusresultintwodollarsof
