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1、EconomicResearchLivestock,Dairy,andPoultryServiceSituationandOutlookOutlookMildredHaleyKeithlyJonesLDP-M-277mhaley@ers.usda.govkjones@ers.usda.govJuly18,2017Increasesin2018RedMeatandPoultryPerCapitaDisappearanceLargelyDuetoStrongProductionForecastsNextYearContentsCat
2、tle/BeefPositivechangesin2018percapitabeef,pork,andpoultrydisappearanceareexpectedDairytobedrivenlargelybyproductionincreases,butalsobychangesintrade.LambandPork/Hogsmuttonpercapitadisappearanceisexpectedtodecline1.7percent,however,duetoaLamb/Muttonsmalldeclineinprod
3、uctionandasmallincreaseinexports.Forbeef,the1.3-percentPoultryincreaseinpercapitadisappearanceto57.9poundsistheresultofa2.2-percentContactsandLinksincreaseinthe2018productionforecast,togetherwithstrongerbeefimports(2.9percentlargerthanthe2017forecast)anda1.9-percenti
4、ncreaseinbeefexports.The1.7-Tablespercentchangeintheporkpercapitain2018—to50.9pounds,thelargestpercapitadisappearancesince2004—isexpectedeventhoughexportsareforecasttoincrease3.8RedMeatandPoultrypercentnextyear.Thecurrentporkindustryexpansion,withproductionnextyearDa
5、iryForecastexpectedtoincrease3.5percent,drivestheexpectedincreaseinpercapitaporkdisappearance.Thebroilerpercapitadisappearanceincrease—1.3percentto91.3WebSitespounds—isduetoanticipatedproductiongrowthof1.9percentplusasmallincreaseinAnimalProductionexports(+0.8percent
6、,yearoveryear).Theturkeypercapitain2018isexpectedtoandMarketingIssuesincrease1.1percentto17pounds.Theincreasederivesfromlargerproduction—1.9Cattlepercentoverthe2017turkeyproductionforecast.TheincreaseinturkeypercapitaisDairyanticipatedeventhoughturkeyexportsareexpect
7、edtoincrease7.8percentin2018.HogsThestrongincreasederivesfromthecontinuedrecoveryofexports,afterthesharpPoultryandEggsdeclinein2015duetodiseaseproblems.WASDE-----------------------------2018Percapitaconsumptionofredmeatsandpoutry,retailbasis:Tableswillbepercentchange
8、fromayearearlierreleasedonJuly27,2017%22.35%ThenextOutlookReportreleaseis1.51.32%1.31%1.12%August16,20171--------------------------
