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1、GLOBALMacq-roinsightsFactoryAsia’s2018-20outlookOver2018-20,weforecastrealGDPgrowthforFactoryAsiaat3.7%pa,with0.9pptpaattributabletoexports.ThelatterisconsistentwithFactoryAsiaexportgrowthof4%pa.Weexpectglobalexportgrowthtoaverage3%pa.FactoryAsiaincludesJapan.Incomparison,e
2、xportgrowthcontributed1.6pptoftheregion’s4.0%parealGDPgrowthover2011-15,whenFactoryAsia’sexportgrowthaveraged8%pa.Our2018-20basecasehasanongoinggentlefadeinEastAsia’sgrowthWhythisissuematterstoinvestorswiththeregion’sdeterioratingdemographics,below,beingoneimportantfactor.1
3、)Asthetailwindofglobalrecoveryabates,Growthinthelabourforcehasdeceleratedtozero.Theregion’shome-investorswillneedtofocusbackonpurchasingdemographicof20-49yearoldsisnowshrinkingataround1%pa.trends.WeforecastmodestglobalgrowthandlownominalandrealbondFactoryAsia:YoY%growthin1)
4、theworking-agedemographic,yieldsages:15-64,and2)thehome-purchasingdemographic,ages:20-4917May2017Demographics,productivity,3(%)15-6420-49andneutralrates24April2017Financialrepressionfor2decades12)WeforecastglobalrealGDPgrowthwillbelessrapidin2018(+2.7%YoY)versus02017(+2.9%Y
5、oY).Our2019and2020forecastsareboth+2.6%YoY-1Forallourglobalforecasts,pleaseseethe16-2May2017TheGlobalMacroOutlook:19901995200020052010201520202025Beyondthecycle.OnlineaccesstoourglobalNote:FactoryAsiaistheaggregateofJapan,China,Korea,Taiwan,HK,andtheASEAN-5macroforecastsisa
6、vailableonrequestSource:IMF,Datastream,MacquarieResearch,June20173)Withgrowthscarce,investorswillbeTheriskofalargerstep-downingrowthrelatestoinvestment,bothitsrateseekingpocketsofstrength.India,notpartandquality.MNCsandtheirFDIflowsintogreenfieldprojectswasexaminedinofFacto
7、ryAsia,isattractive,inouropinionthe11January2017:Followingthenewsmartmoney.TheirfadingcommitmenttothecountriesofFactoryAsiaisaredflag.5December2016EasternEurope,ASEAN&India12May2017India:isitmorethanjustFDI:announcedgreenfieldprojects,%ofGDP,afadingcommitmentliguidity?byVik
8、torShvets6(%ofGDP)FactoryAsiaFactoryAsiaexJapan6June2017Indiastrategy:stayonthe5ba
