麦格里集团-亚洲宏观-in case you missed it，asia~pac this week’s highest ip＆conviction-20170623-macquarie

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1、ASIA/AUSTRALASIAIncaseyoumissedit:Asia-PacThisweek’shighestIP&ConvictionMaterialinsights-PredictivepowerofMacqsteelsurveyPolinaDiyachkinaInthisnote,theMacquariequantteamrevealsastrongpositiverelationshipbetweentheChinasteelsurveyandglobalmaterialnames

2、undercoverage.Steel,ironorenamesrespondparticularlywell;amongdiversifiedSouth32,GlencoreandAnglostandoutaswell.Basemetalsarenotasconsistent.Excessivelygood/badsurveyresultsdonotnecessarilyimproveperformance,whichshowsimportanceoffundamentalanalysis.Ne

3、wdatapointnextweek.“Incaseyoumissedit”highlightstheveryAsia’senergychoices-OillowerforlongerPolinaDiyachkinabestofourAsiaPacificresearch.EveryMacquarie’senergyteamhasmadeasubstantialdowngradetoouraveragereportwepublishisassessedforBrentpricestoUS$54/b

4、blin2H2017,US$49/bblin2018andUS$53/bblin2019proprietaryresearchcontentandrespectively(Link).Theanalysisindicatestherewillbetoomuchoilbeingactionableinvestmentideasforourproducedgloballyuntil2020.Thisisnotgreatnewsforupstreamproducers.Weclients–details

5、inside.Wehopeyoufindlowerourearningsestimatesandrecommendationsforanumberofupstreamoilitusefulandappreciateallfeedback.playsintheregionandhighlightourpreferenceforrefiningandpetrochemicalstocks.ToppicksareIOCL,SOilandJXinrefiningandLotteChemandLGinMor

6、ehighlightsinsidepetrochemicals.OurtopsellideasinupstreamspaceareInpexandSapuraImpossibilityoftightening-Opioids–Energy(SAPE).AdityaSuresh:AsiaOil&Gas-Minefieldat$50/bbl.prescribedbyCBs&ChinaCorinneJian:Taiwanpetrochemsector-EPSdowncycletoextend.TheGl

7、obalMacroOutlook-SlowerglobalAndrewHodge:AustralianOil&Gas-Oillulltopersist.growthin2018&2019Asiaoil&gasdownstream-June-17:PetrochemicalinventorydestockingLarsen&Toubro-Quietsenseofconfidenceisalmostcomplete,whiledemandremainsstableAnnaParkMacquarieMa

8、rqueeIdeas-Bottom-upTopWelaunchthispiecetohelpinvestorstogainabetterunderstandingofAsiaoilPicks&gasdownstream.WetrackChina’spetrochemicaldemandtoprovideourTechandTelecom-A-shareinclusion;Whatanalysesofpetrochemicals/dcycles.Timetobeselectivebu