汇丰银行-印度-it服务业-需求更新和短期诱因-20170920-hsbc-indian it demand update and near-term triggers

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1、20September2017IndianITEQUITIESINDIANITSERVICESDemandupdateandnear-termtriggersIndiaAccentureFY18guidanceacriticalnear-termtriggerfortheYogeshAggarwal*sector;strongerguidancewouldindicateimprovingdemandHeadofResearch,IndiaHSBCSecuritiesandCapitalMarkets(India)

2、PrivateLimitedyogeshaggarwal@hsbc.co.inCommentaryfromlargeITcompanieshasbeenmixed,but+912222681246impliesamoderateimprovementin2Qover1QVikasAhuja*Analyst,ITservicesHSBCSecuritiesandCapitalMarkets(India)PrivateLimitedWehaveaBuyratingonInfosysandHCLTandHoldonTCSvik

3、asahuja@hsbc.co.in+912261640690andCTSH;ReduceWiproVivekGedda*Analyst,ITservices&Autos2QwasabusyquarterforITinvestors,mostlydrivenbytheexitofInfosys’sCEOandHSBCSecuritiesandCapitalMarkets(India)PrivateLimitedvivekgedda@hsbc.co.inrelatedevents.However,thequarterisnea

4、rlyoverandtheoperationalupdateisn’tso+912261640693bleak.1Q18wasoneoftheweakest1Qs(fromasequentialgrowthperspective),althoughinlinewithexpectations.2Q18islikelytobeweakaswell(vshistorical2Qq/q*Employedbyanon-USaffiliateofHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc,andisnotregistered/qua

5、lifiedpursuanttoFINRAregulationstrends),butbetterthan1Q18,withsomepick-upacrosskeydemandmarketslikeinsurance,payers,manufacturing,telecomandevensectionsofbanking.Accenture’s4Q17resultson28SeptemberandguidanceforFY18couldbeakeytriggerforthesectorinthenearterm.Table1

6、highlightsAccenture’sguidancehistory.Itisusuallyconservativeandthecompanyhasbeatenitsguidancein8ofthepast11years(ofthe3yearsofmiss,2werethesub-primeyears).Consensusnumberssuggest+4-7%forFY18andanymaterialdeviationfromthisexpectationcouldhaveasignificantread-acrossf

7、orthesector.CommentaryfromlargeITcompanieshasbeenmixed,butimpliessomeimprovementin2Qover1Q:CommentaryonBFSIhasbeenmixed.CTSHisseeingdecentdemandpick-upininsuranceandsmallerbanks,butlargerbanksarestillslowinspending.TCScontinuestoexpectsomeimprovementinthecomingquar

8、tersinBFSI(seeour29AugustnotefromtheTCSmanagementmeeting–‘beyondtheobvious’).InfosyshasnotseenanyimprovementinBFSI,butthatcouldbecompanyspecifici