汇丰银行-on top of the datadown-shifting from fifth gear-20170609-hsbc

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1、9June2017OntopofthedataECONOMICSASIADown-shiftingfromfifthgearBroaddecelerationinMayPMIsconfirmsthatactivityalreadyFredericNeumannpeaked,butwedon’texpectasharpdeclineinmomentumEconomistTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedfredericneumann@hsbc.com.hkElectronicsoutputshoul

2、dholdupasApple-linkedsuppliers+85228224556acrosstheregiongearupforSeptemberproductlaunchesJosephIncalcaterraEconomistStill,overallgrowthin2H17willlikelyslow;centralbankscanTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedjoseph.f.incalcaterra@hsbc.com.hkeasilyremainonholdfornow,butshould

3、staycautiousinto2018+85228224687JiWonKwonAlthoughdouble-digittradenumbersmaycontinuetoflashacrossthescreen,itisEconomistTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedclearthatmomentumalreadypeaked.2017startedwithabang,andwhilethereareji.won.kwon@hsbc.com.hkreasonstobeoptimisticonthegro

4、wthoutlookforcertainimportantindustries(thinkabout+85229966621theupcomingApplelaunchesandtheimpactontheelectronicssector),theoverallexportMaitreyiDasEconomicsAssociatecyclehasloststeam.ThePMIshighlightedweakernewexportordersjustaboutBangaloreeverywhere,despitestrongreadingsintheWest.InC

5、hina,theCaixinmeasureevendippedbelowthewaterline,possiblyareflectionoftighterfinancialconditions.Consumptionhasbeenrelativelysubduedthisyearcomparedtoexports,duetolimitedemploymentandwagegains.Still,consumptionwilllikelybeastablecontributortogrowthin2H,comparedtothepossibilityofaweakerc

6、ontributionfromnetexports.ThisisparticularlythecaseinASEAN,whereconsumerindicatorsarepointingtosomegreenshootsaftermonthsofincrementallyweakerlabourmarketdata.Weremainconcernedaboutprivateinvestment.Somewillrecallthatthiswasaweakspotinmost1QGDPprints,asignthatexportersdon’tnecessarilybe

7、lieveinthelongevityoftheexportcycle.Publicinvestment,ontheotherhand,continuestoserveasagrowthpillaracrosstheregion–evenifinvestmentactivityinthePhilippinesandIndonesiamaymoderatefromahighbaselastyear.Meanwhile,avastpipelineofChinese-fundedprojects,ifimplemented,wouldprovideaboo