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1、ARTIFICIALINTELLIGENCEANDLIFEIN2030ONEHUNDREDYEARSTUDYONARTIFICIALINTELLIGENCE
2、REPORTOFTHE2015STUDYPANEL
3、SEPTEMBER2016PREFACETheOneHundredYearStudyonArtificialIntelligence,launchedinthefallof2014,isalong-terminvestigationofthefieldofArtificialIntelligence(AI)anditsinfluencesonpeople,theircommun
4、ities,andsociety.Itconsidersthescience,engineering,anddeploymentofAI-enabledcomputingsystems.Asitscoreactivity,theStandingCommitteethatoverseestheOneHundredYearStudyformsaStudyPaneleveryfiveyearstoassessthecurrentstateofAI.TheStudyPanelreviewsAI’sprogressintheyearsfollowingtheimmediatelypriorre
5、port,Theoverarchingpurposeenvisionsthepotentialadvancesthatlieahead,anddescribesthetechnicalandsocietalchallengesandopportunitiestheseadvancesraise,includinginsucharenasasoftheOneHundredYearethics,economics,andthedesignofsystemscompatiblewithhumancognition.TheStudy’speriodicexpertoverarchingpur
6、poseoftheOneHundredYearStudy’speriodicexpertreviewistoprovideacollectedandconnectedsetofreflectionsaboutAIanditsinfluencesasthereviewistoprovideafieldadvances.Thestudiesareexpectedtodevelopsynthesesandassessmentsthatprovideexpert-informedguidancefordirectionsincollectedandconnectedAIresearch,de
7、velopment,andsystemsdesign,aswellasprogramsandpoliciestohelpensurethatthesesystemsbroadlybenefitindividualsandsociety.1setofreflectionsaboutTheOneHundredYearStudyismodeledonanearliereffortinformallyknownasAIanditsinfluencesasthe“AAAIAsilomarStudy.”During2008-2009,thethenpresidentoftheAssociatio
8、nfortheAdvancementofArtificialIntelligence(AAAI),EricHorvitz,assembledathefieldadvances.groupofAIexpertsfrommultipleinstitutionsandareasofthefield,alongwithscholarsofcognitivescience,philosophy,andlaw.Workingindistributedsubgroups,theparticipantsaddressednear-termAIdevelopments,long-termpossibi
9、lities,andlegalandethicalconcerns,andthencametogetherinathree-daymeetingatAsilomartoshareanddiscusstheirfindings.Ashortwrittenreportontheintensivemeetingdiscussions,amplifiedbytheparticipants’subsequentdiscussionswithothercolleagu
