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1、ARTIFICIALINTELLIGENCEANDLIFEIN2030ONEHUNDREDYEARSTUDYONARTIFICIALINTELLIGENCE
2、REPORTOFTHE2015STUDYPANEL
3、SEPTEMBER2016PREFACETheOneHundredYearStudyonArtificialIntelligence,launchedinthefallof2014,isalong-terminvestigationofthefieldofArtificialIntelligence(AI)and
4、itsinfluencesonpeople,theircommunities,andsociety.Itconsidersthescience,engineering,anddeploymentofAI-enabledcomputingsystems.Asitscoreactivity,theStandingCommitteethatoverseestheOneHundredYearStudyformsaStudyPaneleveryfiveyearstoassessthecurrentstateofAI.TheStu
5、dyPanelreviewsAI’sprogressintheyearsfollowingtheimmediatelypriorreport,Theoverarchingpurposeenvisionsthepotentialadvancesthatlieahead,anddescribesthetechnicalandsocietalchallengesandopportunitiestheseadvancesraise,includinginsucharenasasoftheOneHundredYearethics
6、,economics,andthedesignofsystemscompatiblewithhumancognition.TheStudy’speriodicexpertoverarchingpurposeoftheOneHundredYearStudy’speriodicexpertreviewistoprovideacollectedandconnectedsetofreflectionsaboutAIanditsinfluencesasthereviewistoprovideafieldadvances.Thes
7、tudiesareexpectedtodevelopsynthesesandassessmentsthatprovideexpert-informedguidancefordirectionsincollectedandconnectedAIresearch,development,andsystemsdesign,aswellasprogramsandpoliciestohelpensurethatthesesystemsbroadlybenefitindividualsandsociety.1setofreflec
8、tionsaboutTheOneHundredYearStudyismodeledonanearliereffortinformallyknownasAIanditsinfluencesasthe“AAAIAsilomarStudy.”During2008-2009,thethenpresidentoftheAssociationfortheAdvancementofArtificialIntelligence(AAAI),EricHorvitz,assembledathefieldadvances.groupofAI
9、expertsfrommultipleinstitutionsandareasofthefield,alongwithscholarsofcognitivescience,philosophy,andlaw.Workingindistributedsubgroups,theparticipantsaddressednear-termAIdevelopments,long-termpossibilities,andlegalandethicalconcerns,andthencametogetherinathree-da
10、ymeetingatAsilomartoshareanddiscusstheirfindings.Ashortwrittenreportontheintensivemeetingdiscussions,amplifiedbytheparticipants’subsequentdiscussionswithothercolleagu