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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateHongKongMacau19June2017ConsumerHotels/Leisure/ForecastChangeGamingKarenTangSummerrallycomesearly,liftTPsResearchAnalyst(+852)22036141karen.tang@db.comKeyChangesKeybeneficiariesareWynn,Galaxy&SJMCompanyTargetPriceRatingRecentconversationswithind
2、ustrycontactsconfirmedourviewthatMacauis0027.HK46.50to-enteringits2ndphaseofVIPresurgence(June1report)wheremid-sized52.00(HKD)junketsareoutgrowingBig3junketsgiventheformer’smoreaggressivecredit0880.HK7.50to8.50(HKD)-extension.Assuch,VIPGGRgrowthisacceleratingandoutgrowingmass1128.HK20.0
3、0to-GGR.Withinmass,premiummassisalsooutgrowinggrindmass.Indeed,GGR22.00(HKD)acceleratedtoMOP750m/daylastweek,upfromMOP735m/dayinMay,evenSource:DeutscheBankduringtheseasonalslowmonthofJune.Assuch,weliftourJuneGGRforecastfrom28%yoyto30-32%yoy.Correspondingly,wearelifting2017ToppicksGGRgro
4、wthfrom15%to18%and2018GGRgrowthfrom10%to14%.WeWynnMacau(1128.HK),HKD18.32Buylift2017-18FEBITDAby1-10%.KeybeneficiariesarestockswithhighVIPSource:DeutscheBankexposures(Wynn,Galaxy&SJM).WethusliftTPsforthese3stocksby10-CompaniesFeatured13%.OurtoppickisnowWynngivenitsabilitytoliftdividends
5、inFY17-19F.Don’tlookatTier-1citypropertyprices;Tier-3citiesholdthekeystoVIPSandsChina(1928.HK),HKD37.20HoldInChina,Tier-1citiesareseeingsofteningpropertyprices.Someinvestorsare2016A2017E2018EconcernedabouttheimpactonMacau’sVIPGGR.Contrarytopopularbelief,P/E(x)23.025.423.0propertypricesi
6、nTier-1citieshaveverylittlecorrelationwithMacau’sVIPEV/EBITDA(x)15.316.616.0GGR(Figure8).Instead,VIPGGRismostlycorrelatedtoTier-3citypropertyGalaxy(0027.HK),HKD47.85Holdprices(75%correlationinFigure9).ThisisbecausethebiggestVIPplayersare2016A2017E2018Eoftennotthewealthiestbutthosewho’ve
7、becomewealthythefastest,i.e.VIPP/E(x)18.723.920.2betsizeiscorrelatedbythesecondderivativeofwealthcreation,butnotEV/EBITDA(x)10.114.312.6wealthcreationitself.AsChina’sTier-3propertymarketshaveremainedstrong,wearenottooconcernedaboutVIPGGRatthemoment.SJM(0880.HK),HKD8.24Hold2016A
